***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.02.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.02.2015.-15.02.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 73 27 0 100 1.9 1.7 3.8 37.3 26.7 24.4 2.3 5.0 8.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 66 34 0 100 2.1 2.3 3.9 42.9 34.0 29.7 2.2 5.1 9.4 30 Becej 27400G00 66 34 0 100 3.2 3.3 4.8 46.4 32.8 30.6 3.5 7.3 13.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 86 14 0 100 3.1 3.0 3.8 32.2 21.5 19.4 5.3 9.6 15.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 58 42 0 100 4.8 5.1 6.5 53.1 35.2 31.9 4.6 9.1 15.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 60 40 0 100 4.7 6.2 7.3 62.8 39.6 35.7 5.0 8.2 12.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 74 26 0 100 1.7 2.2 3.7 41.4 33.4 28.5 2.2 4.4 7.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 17.6 12.8 9.3 69.7 45.0 40.1 9.1 14.5 21.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 10.7 4.8 7.0 57.3 37.8 34.4 3.9 7.8 13.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 81 19 100 13.4 9.1 9.6 71.5 46.3 42.0 5.5 10.5 17.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 54 46 0 100 4.4 5.2 7.0 58.2 38.7 34.5 4.0 8.0 13.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 54 46 0 100 4.5 5.6 7.4 62.1 40.4 35.7 4.1 8.0 13.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 52 48 0 100 5.3 6.1 7.3 61.4 38.9 35.0 4.8 9.0 14.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 56 44 0 100 5.3 7.5 8.3 63.8 42.4 38.9 5.1 9.7 16.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 89 11 0 100 2.0 1.5 2.4 21.1 18.3 14.5 3.8 7.5 12.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 60 40 0 100 3.5 4.0 6.6 56.9 36.3 32.3 3.5 6.9 12.0 30 Nis 06700G01 63 37 0 100 2.0 2.9 4.5 50.3 40.2 33.9 2.1 4.3 7.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 83 17 100 10.5 8.9 11.5 80.0 51.1 46.5 4.7 8.5 13.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 67 33 0 100 2.4 2.7 4.2 44.4 34.2 30.3 2.6 5.8 10.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 11.1 7.6 12.3 73.2 46.7 41.4 4.6 8.5 13.8 29 Sjenica 27900G10 61 39 0 100 3.6 3.7 5.5 48.2 33.5 30.9 3.7 7.6 13.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 58 42 0 100 3.2 4.3 4.9 51.6 41.6 35.6 3.2 5.8 9.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 69 31 0 100 2.3 3.0 5.2 49.7 35.4 31.9 2.7 5.4 9.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 11.6 7.1 8.8 68.1 44.9 41.1 4.4 8.5 14.6 29 Valjevo 28500G11 76 24 0 100 2.6 2.5 5.1 42.4 27.7 25.5 3.5 7.8 14.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 59 41 0 100 3.0 3.6 6.9 58.1 37.6 33.6 2.9 5.9 10.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 79 21 0 100 2.3 2.2 4.3 38.5 25.7 23.7 3.3 6.7 11.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 85 15 0 100 2.2 2.0 3.6 31.5 22.1 18.9 3.8 7.9 14.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 83 17 100 18.5 16.7 12.7 82.2 52.0 47.0 10.1 15.9 23.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 72 28 0 100 2.2 2.3 3.6 38.3 30.0 26.7 2.8 5.6 9.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------