***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.02.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.02.2015.-22.02.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 81 19 100 7.5 7.1 5.9 0.3 52.6 52.2 4.9 6.9 8.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 84 16 100 6.5 6.7 6.1 0.7 56.5 55.6 3.8 5.9 7.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 81 19 100 7.4 6.9 6.1 0.3 52.5 52.1 4.4 6.6 8.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 0.7 -0.2 3.9 -0.1 49.0 48.9 -2.2 -0.1 1.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 7.6 6.4 4.2 -0.3 47.3 47.7 4.5 6.7 8.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 52 48 0 100 3.4 4.9 2.8 -0.7 43.0 44.5 3.7 5.7 7.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 84 16 100 6.0 6.2 6.0 0.7 56.2 55.3 3.4 5.5 7.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 54 46 0 100 -4.3 -2.7 3.3 -0.5 44.7 45.9 -3.9 -2.2 -0.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 7.8 6.7 4.9 -0.2 48.2 48.4 4.7 6.9 9.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 52 48 0 100 4.3 6.3 4.0 -0.5 45.2 46.3 4.7 6.8 8.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 7.9 6.6 4.1 -0.3 46.6 47.3 4.8 7.0 9.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 53 47 0 100 3.8 5.8 3.9 -0.5 45.0 46.2 4.3 6.4 8.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 54 46 0 100 4.2 5.9 3.2 -0.7 42.4 44.3 4.7 6.9 8.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 75 25 100 8.0 6.8 5.1 -0.2 48.0 48.3 4.8 7.0 9.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 6.6 6.2 4.5 0.3 52.7 51.9 3.9 5.9 7.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 51 49 0 100 4.7 6.6 3.7 -0.5 45.1 46.2 5.0 7.3 9.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 86 14 100 5.8 6.2 6.1 0.8 57.9 56.8 3.4 5.4 7.2 30 Palic 37000G16 54 46 0 100 3.7 5.4 3.4 -0.7 42.8 44.5 4.2 6.3 8.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 83 17 100 6.6 6.6 6.2 0.6 55.5 54.7 3.7 5.9 8.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 60 40 0 100 0.0 1.7 1.6 -0.9 40.7 43.3 0.8 2.8 4.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 7.6 6.8 5.5 0.0 50.4 50.3 4.6 6.8 8.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 85 15 100 6.4 6.7 6.3 0.8 57.2 56.2 3.7 5.8 7.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 81 19 100 6.9 6.6 6.2 0.3 53.0 52.5 3.9 6.2 8.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 7.8 6.5 4.9 -0.3 46.9 47.5 4.7 6.9 9.0 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 6.6 5.8 4.3 0.0 50.0 49.8 3.8 5.8 7.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 55 45 0 100 3.9 5.6 3.1 -0.6 42.6 44.7 4.4 6.5 8.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 6.9 6.2 5.0 0.1 50.8 50.6 4.0 6.1 8.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 7.3 6.5 4.2 0.0 50.1 49.8 4.3 6.5 8.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 56 44 0 100 -0.1 1.6 2.6 -0.8 41.8 43.9 0.4 2.7 4.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 82 18 100 6.4 6.4 6.1 0.6 55.4 54.6 3.6 5.7 7.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------