***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.02.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 22.02.2016.-28.02.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 35 65 100 9.8 9.6 10.8 119.9 69.8 56.6 3.0 5.4 8.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 31 69 100 9.0 9.6 11.5 134.4 73.9 58.8 2.6 4.6 7.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 34 66 100 12.5 11.5 11.4 117.3 68.9 57.1 2.8 5.8 10.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 8.9 10.8 12.2 104.3 64.9 53.7 3.4 6.7 11.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 7.7 9.7 13.1 108.1 66.1 55.4 2.9 5.7 9.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 9.3 10.7 14.1 102.2 63.8 52.9 3.9 7.1 11.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 34 66 100 8.9 9.6 11.3 133.4 73.7 58.0 2.2 4.5 7.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 12.4 15.1 15.3 108.5 66.0 55.1 6.3 10.1 15.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 6.9 9.0 13.7 112.4 67.3 56.7 2.5 4.9 8.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 7.9 10.1 15.3 111.3 67.0 56.7 3.2 6.0 9.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 7.2 8.8 12.6 103.5 64.7 54.1 3.0 5.5 9.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 9.2 11.3 12.7 104.3 64.9 53.7 3.4 6.8 11.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 9.7 11.4 13.0 102.5 64.1 53.3 4.0 7.4 12.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 28 72 100 14.5 13.4 15.1 122.5 70.3 59.3 3.4 6.8 11.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 51 49 0 100 3.3 10.7 10.7 97.1 63.2 50.3 2.5 6.1 12.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 7.8 8.9 12.1 99.2 63.1 52.6 3.1 5.8 9.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 32 68 100 10.6 12.2 11.7 141.0 75.6 59.0 2.4 4.9 8.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 36 64 100 10.3 9.4 17.0 114.0 67.7 58.2 2.7 5.2 8.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 32 68 100 9.4 9.9 11.7 132.2 73.2 58.8 2.5 4.8 7.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 8.9 11.2 20.1 110.4 66.6 56.6 3.7 6.8 11.0 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 36 64 100 11.5 10.4 12.1 112.9 67.5 56.1 3.0 5.9 9.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 33 67 100 10.0 11.8 12.5 145.2 76.6 60.4 2.7 5.1 8.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 31 69 100 8.3 8.3 12.2 126.7 71.7 58.4 2.2 4.2 6.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 32 68 100 12.4 11.2 14.6 116.6 68.5 58.4 3.2 6.2 10.4 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 8.7 11.9 12.7 114.7 68.3 56.8 3.2 6.4 11.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 51 49 0 100 3.6 10.3 12.9 103.6 64.7 52.9 3.1 6.3 10.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 34 66 100 10.3 10.0 12.1 121.1 70.2 57.6 3.0 5.4 8.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 7.9 9.0 11.5 97.7 63.0 51.5 2.8 5.6 10.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 36 64 100 18.0 16.8 18.3 116.0 68.3 58.7 5.0 9.5 15.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 31 69 100 10.2 10.3 11.2 128.3 72.3 58.2 2.3 4.7 8.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------