***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.02.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 29.02.2016.-06.03.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 32 68 100 2.3 3.0 2.3 2.4 75.7 71.0 -1.7 0.1 1.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 29 71 100 1.8 2.2 2.0 2.2 74.6 70.0 -1.8 -0.2 1.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 30 70 100 4.0 4.5 2.0 2.3 75.6 71.3 0.4 2.0 3.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 17 83 100 -1.1 -0.4 -0.4 2.8 78.6 74.8 -5.8 -3.9 -2.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 24 76 100 1.4 1.8 -0.5 2.6 75.7 72.3 -2.1 -0.6 0.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 24 76 100 0.5 0.6 -2.8 2.5 73.8 71.1 -2.6 -1.3 -0.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 34 66 100 1.9 2.4 2.0 2.2 74.6 69.9 -1.5 0.1 1.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 30 70 100 -4.1 -4.1 -2.6 2.1 70.5 67.6 -8.2 -6.4 -4.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 29 71 100 2.3 2.5 0.1 2.3 73.5 70.0 -1.0 0.4 1.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 31 69 100 2.1 2.2 -1.7 2.2 71.1 68.0 -1.1 0.4 1.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 24 76 100 2.1 2.3 -1.1 2.5 74.3 71.5 -1.2 0.2 1.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 25 75 100 0.9 1.0 -1.4 2.4 73.1 70.1 -2.4 -1.0 0.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 27 73 100 1.6 1.8 -1.8 2.5 74.0 70.7 -1.3 0.0 1.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 37 63 100 2.3 2.4 -0.1 1.9 70.5 67.2 -0.8 0.7 2.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 19 81 100 2.3 2.9 0.3 2.7 79.2 75.4 -1.3 0.2 1.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 24 76 100 2.7 2.9 -1.4 2.6 74.9 72.1 -0.6 0.8 2.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 31 69 100 2.0 2.2 1.8 2.0 72.7 68.1 -1.6 0.0 1.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 32 68 100 -0.3 -0.5 -2.5 1.8 67.7 65.2 -3.2 -1.9 -0.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 29 71 100 2.0 2.4 1.9 2.1 74.4 70.1 -1.6 0.0 1.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 33 67 100 -2.5 -3.2 -4.7 1.4 63.8 62.1 -6.6 -4.7 -2.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 31 69 100 1.9 2.4 1.3 2.3 75.2 71.1 -1.5 0.0 1.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 31 69 100 1.6 1.8 1.8 1.9 72.4 68.1 -1.8 -0.3 1.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 31 69 100 1.5 1.8 1.5 2.1 73.9 70.0 -1.7 -0.3 1.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 32 68 100 1.6 1.7 -0.4 2.0 70.8 67.7 -1.4 0.0 1.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 26 74 100 1.6 2.2 0.6 2.7 78.3 73.9 -1.6 -0.2 1.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 29 71 100 1.5 1.7 -1.7 2.3 73.1 70.0 -1.5 -0.2 1.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 33 67 100 2.0 2.8 1.5 2.6 76.3 71.8 -1.7 0.0 1.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 19 81 100 0.8 1.2 -0.3 2.7 77.5 74.2 -2.5 -1.2 0.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 32 68 100 -0.5 -1.0 -3.4 1.6 65.2 63.3 -4.4 -2.6 -0.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 32 68 100 2.2 2.8 2.1 2.3 75.4 70.7 -1.3 0.3 1.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------