***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.02.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 22.02.2016.-28.02.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 19 81 100 1.8 2.7 1.8 3.4 80.6 77.8 -2.3 -0.6 1.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 23 77 100 0.8 1.8 1.5 3.3 79.9 77.0 -3.6 -1.7 0.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 19 81 100 3.0 3.9 1.4 3.3 80.3 77.8 -0.9 0.7 2.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 11 89 100 -1.9 -1.0 -0.9 3.8 81.8 79.9 -6.7 -4.8 -3.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 17 83 100 0.4 1.1 -1.0 3.6 79.6 77.5 -3.5 -1.9 -0.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 21 79 100 -0.3 0.2 -3.3 3.2 77.1 74.4 -4.3 -2.6 -1.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 23 77 100 1.0 2.1 1.6 3.4 80.2 77.2 -3.2 -1.4 0.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 29 71 100 -5.3 -4.6 -3.1 3.3 76.6 73.6 -9.6 -7.7 -5.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 22 78 100 1.2 2.0 -0.4 3.4 78.7 76.3 -2.7 -1.0 0.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 24 76 100 1.0 1.6 -2.1 3.5 78.0 75.2 -2.6 -1.1 0.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 19 81 100 0.9 1.4 -1.7 3.5 77.9 75.8 -3.0 -1.4 0.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 25 75 100 -0.2 0.3 -2.1 3.3 76.8 74.3 -4.0 -2.4 -0.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 19 81 100 0.9 1.3 -2.5 3.1 76.8 74.4 -3.5 -1.7 0.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 26 74 100 1.2 2.0 -0.5 3.2 78.5 75.3 -2.2 -0.7 0.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 6 94 100 1.3 1.9 -0.2 3.6 81.9 80.3 -2.8 -1.2 0.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 16 84 100 1.7 2.1 -2.0 3.5 78.0 76.0 -2.2 -0.6 0.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 22 78 100 0.9 1.9 1.6 3.3 79.8 76.7 -3.5 -1.6 0.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 27 73 100 -1.5 -0.9 -2.8 3.3 76.7 73.4 -4.9 -3.4 -2.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 23 77 100 0.9 1.9 1.4 3.2 79.6 76.9 -3.3 -1.5 0.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 34 66 100 -4.0 -3.5 -5.0 2.8 72.3 68.9 -9.4 -6.9 -4.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 21 79 100 1.2 2.1 0.8 3.4 80.0 77.5 -2.8 -1.2 0.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 24 76 100 0.5 1.5 1.5 3.2 79.6 76.6 -3.7 -1.9 -0.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 22 78 100 0.3 1.0 1.0 3.1 79.3 76.7 -3.4 -1.8 -0.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 23 77 100 0.5 1.1 -0.8 3.3 78.4 75.5 -2.9 -1.5 -0.1 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 8 92 100 1.2 1.9 0.1 3.7 81.8 79.6 -3.1 -1.5 0.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 25 75 100 0.7 1.1 -2.4 2.9 75.3 73.1 -3.2 -1.6 0.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 13 87 100 1.9 2.8 1.0 3.7 81.1 78.5 -3.0 -1.1 0.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 9 91 100 -0.3 0.3 -0.7 3.8 81.3 79.6 -4.3 -2.8 -1.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 32 68 100 -1.9 -1.3 -3.7 3.0 74.4 70.8 -5.8 -4.0 -2.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 22 78 100 1.3 2.3 1.6 3.3 80.1 77.3 -3.0 -1.2 0.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------