***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 31.01.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.02.2019.-03.03.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 44 56 100 0.0 0.1 -0.3 1.4 67.5 64.8 -2.4 -1.2 0.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 86 14 100 -1.8 -0.9 -0.5 1.2 65.6 63.6 -3.5 -2.1 -0.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 45 55 100 1.5 1.4 -0.4 1.2 65.2 63.0 -1.0 0.3 1.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 83 17 100 -5.1 -4.6 -3.4 0.8 61.1 58.9 -6.9 -5.5 -4.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 -2.0 -1.6 -2.7 0.9 61.6 59.1 -3.6 -2.4 -1.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 42 58 100 -2.1 -2.0 -4.6 1.3 68.3 63.9 -4.1 -3.1 -2.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 86 14 100 -1.5 -0.6 -0.5 1.2 65.3 63.3 -3.3 -1.9 -0.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 80 20 100 -7.5 -7.4 -5.0 0.6 58.5 56.1 -9.1 -7.9 -6.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 81 19 100 -1.1 -0.6 -2.4 1.0 63.5 60.6 -2.7 -1.5 -0.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 -1.3 -1.1 -4.2 0.7 59.6 57.3 -2.7 -1.6 -0.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 -1.5 -1.2 -3.5 0.8 61.0 58.5 -3.0 -1.9 -0.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 -2.5 -2.4 -4.2 0.7 59.5 56.8 -4.0 -3.0 -2.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 -1.9 -1.5 -4.1 0.9 62.6 59.2 -3.4 -2.3 -1.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 -0.7 -0.5 -2.9 0.7 59.5 57.5 -2.3 -1.2 -0.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 43 57 100 -0.5 -0.2 -1.7 1.7 71.4 68.4 -2.9 -1.7 -0.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 -0.9 -0.5 -3.8 0.9 62.4 59.5 -2.3 -1.3 -0.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 87 13 100 -1.7 -1.0 -0.7 1.1 63.3 61.8 -3.4 -2.0 -0.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 -3.4 -3.4 -4.9 0.4 56.1 54.4 -4.8 -3.8 -2.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 85 15 100 -1.7 -0.7 -0.6 1.2 66.0 63.9 -3.4 -2.0 -0.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 -6.5 -6.4 -6.0 0.5 57.9 55.3 -8.4 -7.0 -5.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 83 17 100 -1.4 -0.7 -1.2 1.1 64.1 61.4 -3.0 -1.7 -0.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 85 15 100 -1.9 -1.2 -0.8 1.1 63.5 61.9 -3.6 -2.3 -1.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 45 55 100 -1.1 -1.1 -0.9 1.2 66.2 63.9 -3.3 -2.2 -1.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 -1.6 -1.4 -3.0 0.7 59.5 57.5 -3.1 -2.0 -0.9 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 82 18 100 -1.6 -1.0 -1.5 1.2 65.4 62.5 -3.2 -2.0 -0.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 40 60 100 -1.1 -1.2 -4.0 1.1 65.3 61.2 -3.1 -2.1 -1.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 46 54 100 -0.4 -0.3 -0.7 1.3 66.8 64.0 -3.1 -1.7 -0.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 82 18 100 -2.7 -2.2 -3.0 1.1 63.4 61.0 -4.1 -3.0 -2.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 -3.9 -3.8 -5.4 0.6 58.2 55.7 -5.5 -4.4 -3.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 46 54 100 -0.3 -0.3 -0.4 1.3 66.8 64.6 -3.1 -1.7 -0.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------