***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 31.01.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 11.02.2013.-17.02.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 57 43 0 100 9999.0 2.1 3.7 -1.9 34.0 37.3 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 57 43 0 100 2.2 2.8 3.3 -2.2 32.3 35.5 2.9 5.1 7.2 30 Becej 27400G00 58 42 0 100 2.7 3.5 3.8 -2.1 33.6 36.9 3.4 5.7 7.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 54 46 0 100 -3.5 -2.5 2.3 -1.6 36.8 39.3 -3.0 -0.8 1.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 56 44 0 100 3.0 3.9 2.6 -1.8 35.3 38.3 3.5 5.7 7.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 56 44 0 100 2.8 3.7 1.6 -1.6 36.2 39.4 3.3 5.3 7.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 60 40 0 100 1.6 2.3 3.1 -2.2 31.8 35.1 2.4 4.7 6.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 59 41 0 100 -4.7 -4.2 1.6 -2.1 32.0 35.7 -4.1 -2.3 -0.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 56 44 0 100 2.9 3.7 3.1 -2.0 34.2 37.5 3.6 5.9 8.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 57 43 0 100 3.0 3.6 2.2 -2.2 32.5 36.1 3.6 5.8 7.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 58 42 0 100 3.1 4.1 2.5 -1.8 35.0 38.2 3.8 6.0 8.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 61 39 0 100 2.7 3.5 2.3 -2.0 32.9 36.6 3.5 5.6 7.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 62 38 0 100 3.2 4.1 1.9 -1.9 33.2 37.2 4.0 6.1 8.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 60 40 0 100 2.8 3.2 2.8 -2.6 30.1 33.7 3.6 6.0 8.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 75 25 100 6.2 3.8 2.7 -1.3 39.1 40.9 3.0 5.2 7.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 60 40 0 100 3.6 4.7 2.3 -1.7 35.4 38.6 4.4 6.5 8.6 30 Nis 06700G01 58 42 0 100 1.9 2.4 2.9 -2.3 31.3 34.2 2.6 4.7 6.7 30 Palic 37000G16 56 44 0 100 2.7 2.9 1.6 -2.4 30.4 34.4 3.3 5.4 7.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 57 43 0 100 2.1 2.7 3.5 -2.2 32.4 35.6 2.8 5.1 7.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 55 45 0 100 -0.1 -0.1 -0.3 -2.4 29.0 33.2 0.4 2.2 3.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 56 44 0 100 2.9 3.7 3.6 -2.0 34.4 37.7 3.5 5.8 8.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 55 45 0 100 2.3 2.7 3.2 -2.3 31.6 34.4 2.9 5.2 7.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 57 43 0 100 2.2 2.7 3.6 -2.3 31.9 35.2 2.9 5.2 7.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 57 43 0 100 2.9 3.3 2.9 -2.4 31.4 35.1 3.6 5.9 8.2 29 Valjevo 28500G11 59 41 0 100 2.2 3.1 2.4 -1.9 34.2 37.3 2.9 5.1 7.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 61 39 0 100 3.3 4.0 1.8 -1.8 32.6 37.0 4.0 6.1 7.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 60 40 0 100 2.6 3.4 2.9 -2.0 33.3 36.7 3.4 5.6 7.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 53 47 0 100 2.8 4.0 2.7 -1.5 38.2 40.4 3.3 5.7 7.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 55 45 0 100 -0.9 -0.9 0.7 -2.5 29.5 33.7 -0.4 1.8 3.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 59 41 0 100 1.9 2.7 3.5 -2.1 32.9 36.2 2.7 4.9 7.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------