***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 30.01.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.02.2020.-01.03.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 33.0 31.1 42.2 97.5 54.4 48.5 20.1 28.6 38.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 31.5 28.5 36.0 93.1 51.7 46.9 20.5 27.6 35.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 41.2 38.4 42.4 96.5 53.7 48.8 25.8 36.0 47.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 55 45 0 100 29.7 39.1 46.1 88.2 46.6 41.8 30.8 41.3 53.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 46.7 43.7 49.1 97.0 53.6 48.0 31.6 41.4 52.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 56 44 0 100 26.2 34.3 45.5 91.8 48.8 45.3 27.3 34.7 42.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 51 49 0 100 19.3 27.1 35.2 93.4 52.1 46.5 19.5 26.2 33.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 66.4 61.7 52.5 94.8 51.5 47.6 49.2 60.6 72.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 39.1 36.9 49.8 97.6 54.0 49.1 26.8 35.0 43.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 47.9 46.9 54.9 100.4 56.2 51.2 34.8 43.5 52.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 75 25 100 40.2 36.9 48.3 96.2 52.9 48.0 26.6 35.4 45.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 44.5 40.1 46.6 93.2 50.4 46.4 31.1 39.9 49.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 45.3 42.5 50.8 97.3 53.3 49.1 31.8 40.7 50.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 50.9 52.0 58.1 103.9 59.4 53.0 36.8 46.3 56.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 65 35 0 100 18.1 24.9 38.7 76.8 39.5 35.8 20.3 33.1 49.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 38.3 35.6 48.2 96.7 53.2 48.3 25.6 33.9 43.2 30 Nis 06700G01 52 48 0 100 23.0 30.3 33.7 89.4 49.7 44.2 23.5 30.5 38.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 43.8 45.5 60.0 105.6 60.7 54.8 30.1 39.1 49.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 34.9 32.2 38.2 94.8 52.8 48.3 23.2 30.9 39.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 55 45 0 100 32.4 44.1 64.9 94.4 51.0 47.2 33.6 43.5 54.2 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 40.0 38.0 46.6 97.4 53.9 49.0 25.8 35.5 46.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 75 25 100 34.1 30.9 36.7 91.7 51.2 46.0 23.4 30.3 37.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 31.7 30.1 42.4 97.1 54.3 49.7 21.2 28.1 35.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 46.9 47.6 54.3 103.2 58.8 52.9 33.7 42.7 52.3 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 43.1 39.8 48.8 98.0 54.4 48.4 25.1 36.6 49.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 61 39 0 100 27.1 32.4 43.9 84.5 42.3 40.2 28.8 35.2 42.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 51 49 0 100 22.4 35.6 45.1 99.3 55.8 49.4 22.2 31.8 43.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 59 41 0 100 21.1 30.3 43.0 86.1 45.7 41.3 22.2 33.1 46.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 70.1 70.9 62.7 103.7 59.0 53.4 52.9 64.4 76.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 32.6 29.6 37.5 94.6 52.7 47.6 19.8 28.0 37.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------