***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 30.01.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.02.2020.-09.02.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 14 86 100 1.4 1.3 1.0 3.2 74.3 73.5 -4.4 -2.1 0.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 7 93 100 0.7 0.8 1.3 3.6 76.4 75.8 -4.7 -2.6 -0.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 16 84 100 2.8 2.9 1.1 3.2 74.6 73.8 -1.9 0.0 1.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 24 76 100 -2.9 -2.7 -1.6 2.9 73.4 72.5 -7.6 -5.6 -3.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 43 57 100 -1.3 -1.2 -1.4 2.2 67.2 66.6 -4.8 -3.0 -1.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 87 13 100 -3.6 -2.6 -4.0 1.5 63.6 62.5 -5.6 -3.9 -2.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 10 90 100 0.8 0.7 1.1 3.5 74.9 74.4 -4.5 -2.5 -0.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 90 10 100 -7.5 -6.6 -4.0 1.7 63.4 62.7 -9.3 -7.8 -6.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 23 77 100 0.6 0.7 -0.8 2.8 72.8 71.9 -3.6 -1.8 -0.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 43 57 100 -0.6 -0.6 -2.9 2.2 67.7 66.9 -3.8 -2.2 -0.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 34 66 100 -0.8 -0.8 -1.7 2.5 69.5 68.7 -4.5 -2.8 -1.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 49 51 100 -2.2 -2.3 -2.8 1.9 64.7 63.9 -5.2 -3.6 -2.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 88 12 100 -2.9 -1.5 -2.4 2.1 66.9 65.9 -5.1 -3.3 -1.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 19 81 100 1.0 1.2 -0.7 3.1 74.3 73.0 -2.9 -1.3 0.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 8 92 100 0.6 1.6 1.0 4.2 82.6 81.4 -4.3 -2.5 -0.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 37 63 100 -0.2 -0.2 -2.2 2.3 68.5 67.4 -3.7 -2.1 -0.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 8 92 100 0.4 0.3 1.3 3.6 76.0 75.5 -4.4 -2.6 -0.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 49 51 100 -3.2 -3.0 -3.3 2.2 67.0 66.1 -5.9 -4.5 -3.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 7 93 100 0.9 0.9 1.2 3.6 76.9 76.2 -4.5 -2.4 -0.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 92 8 100 -7.6 -6.7 -5.2 1.2 59.5 58.8 -9.9 -7.9 -6.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 19 81 100 0.4 0.4 0.5 3.0 73.5 72.7 -4.0 -2.1 -0.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 9 91 100 0.5 0.8 1.5 3.6 77.5 76.9 -4.6 -2.6 -0.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 8 92 100 0.3 0.5 0.8 3.5 77.2 76.4 -4.2 -2.5 -0.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 27 73 100 -0.3 -0.2 -0.9 2.9 72.6 71.5 -4.1 -2.4 -0.9 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 25 75 100 -0.3 -0.3 0.1 2.7 71.7 70.8 -4.4 -2.6 -1.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 90 10 100 -2.8 -2.6 -3.8 0.6 55.6 54.9 -4.7 -3.1 -1.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 25 75 100 0.7 0.7 0.5 2.8 71.7 70.9 -4.6 -2.3 -0.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 22 78 100 -1.0 -0.6 -0.7 3.4 76.2 75.0 -5.4 -3.6 -1.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 91 9 100 -4.1 -3.2 -4.9 1.5 62.0 61.3 -6.1 -4.4 -2.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 8 92 100 1.3 1.2 1.2 3.5 75.7 75.0 -4.4 -2.2 -0.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------