***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 29.01.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.02.2015.-08.02.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 85 15 100 6.3 4.4 3.3 -1.0 41.5 41.8 3.1 5.6 8.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 80 20 100 6.4 4.0 2.8 -1.4 37.8 38.3 3.3 5.6 7.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 81 19 100 7.5 4.9 3.2 -1.5 37.3 37.7 4.3 6.7 9.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 88 12 100 0.9 -0.6 1.0 -1.1 40.8 41.0 -1.6 0.5 2.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 84 16 100 6.9 5.1 1.9 -1.2 40.2 40.5 4.2 6.3 8.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 87 13 100 5.8 4.9 1.6 -0.5 45.7 46.0 3.4 5.4 7.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 83 17 100 5.9 3.8 2.9 -1.1 39.8 40.2 2.8 5.2 7.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 -0.2 -2.5 0.6 -2.1 34.0 34.6 -2.6 -0.9 0.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 81 19 100 7.8 5.6 2.7 -1.5 38.5 38.9 4.8 7.1 9.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 52 48 0 100 4.1 4.7 1.3 -2.1 34.3 34.9 4.5 6.7 8.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 83 17 100 7.3 5.4 2.1 -1.2 40.5 40.9 4.4 6.6 8.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 83 17 100 7.2 5.4 1.7 -1.3 39.9 40.4 4.5 6.6 8.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 87 13 100 6.9 5.9 2.4 -0.6 45.4 45.7 4.3 6.4 8.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 74 26 0 100 3.6 4.3 1.8 -3.0 27.3 28.2 5.2 7.6 9.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 95 5 100 6.0 5.6 2.9 -0.3 47.8 47.9 3.7 5.8 7.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 88 12 100 7.2 6.2 2.3 -0.6 45.0 45.2 4.7 6.8 8.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 6.2 3.5 2.3 -1.7 35.0 35.5 3.2 5.3 7.3 30 Palic 37000G16 64 36 0 100 3.2 3.7 0.5 -2.7 30.0 30.9 4.0 5.9 7.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 6.8 3.8 2.9 -1.6 36.3 36.9 3.3 5.8 8.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 63 37 0 100 0.1 0.4 -1.2 -2.6 29.3 30.2 0.9 2.7 4.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 81 19 100 7.5 5.4 3.1 -1.4 38.9 39.2 4.6 6.8 8.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 59 41 0 100 3.0 3.7 2.3 -2.0 32.5 33.0 3.8 6.1 8.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 57 43 0 100 3.3 4.1 2.8 -1.9 33.7 34.3 4.0 6.3 8.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 64 36 0 100 3.9 4.6 1.9 -2.6 30.6 31.4 5.0 7.4 9.7 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 86 14 100 5.9 4.3 2.1 -1.1 40.5 40.7 3.4 5.4 7.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 87 13 100 6.4 5.5 1.9 -0.4 46.1 46.4 4.1 6.0 7.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 86 14 100 6.3 4.7 2.8 -0.9 41.7 42.0 3.5 5.8 7.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 91 9 100 7.2 6.2 2.1 -0.7 44.7 44.8 4.6 6.9 9.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 66 34 0 100 0.4 0.9 -0.3 -2.7 29.2 30.1 1.3 3.3 5.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 84 16 100 6.1 4.0 3.1 -1.2 39.5 40.0 3.0 5.4 7.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------