***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.01.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.02.2016.-07.02.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 0 100 100 9.3 12.6 9.7 6.2 91.5 90.4 2.7 5.1 7.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 2 98 100 9.1 12.2 9.7 6.1 91.3 90.0 2.9 5.2 7.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 0 100 100 10.3 13.2 10.1 6.3 90.5 89.3 3.9 6.2 8.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 0 100 100 3.4 5.7 7.8 6.8 90.1 89.3 -2.1 -0.1 1.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 0 100 100 9.4 11.7 8.7 6.5 89.7 88.7 3.7 5.8 7.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 0 100 100 8.1 10.4 7.8 6.7 90.3 89.3 2.9 4.8 6.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 2 98 100 8.7 11.9 9.3 5.8 91.3 90.0 2.4 4.8 6.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 0 100 100 1.8 3.5 8.1 6.3 88.7 87.4 -2.9 -1.2 0.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 0 100 100 10.5 13.0 9.7 6.4 89.7 88.6 4.3 6.6 8.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 0 100 100 9.9 12.1 8.9 6.5 88.9 87.7 4.2 6.2 8.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 0 100 100 9.8 12.2 8.9 6.6 89.6 88.5 4.0 6.1 8.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 0 100 100 9.6 11.8 8.5 6.4 89.4 88.3 4.1 6.1 8.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 0 100 100 9.5 11.9 8.8 6.5 90.2 89.1 3.9 5.9 7.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 0 100 100 11.4 14.0 10.2 6.6 89.6 88.3 4.9 7.3 9.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 0 100 100 9.2 11.9 9.7 7.2 91.4 90.8 3.5 5.6 7.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 0 100 100 9.8 12.1 8.6 6.6 90.1 89.0 4.2 6.2 8.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 1 99 100 8.6 11.1 9.2 5.8 90.5 89.2 3.0 5.0 6.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 0 100 100 8.4 10.1 8.6 6.5 88.7 87.4 3.6 5.4 7.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 2 98 100 9.5 12.8 9.9 6.2 91.0 89.7 2.9 5.4 7.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 0 100 100 5.4 7.1 6.6 6.0 88.2 86.8 0.5 2.3 4.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 0 100 100 10.1 12.7 10.2 6.6 90.4 89.4 4.1 6.3 8.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 1 99 100 9.8 12.8 9.7 6.0 90.8 89.6 3.4 5.8 8.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 2 98 100 9.7 12.5 10.0 6.3 90.5 89.2 3.7 5.9 8.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 0 100 100 11.1 13.6 9.9 6.5 89.1 87.8 4.6 7.0 9.2 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 0 100 100 8.2 10.7 8.8 6.4 91.2 90.2 3.0 4.9 6.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 0 100 100 8.8 10.9 7.5 5.9 89.7 88.6 3.7 5.5 7.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 0 100 100 9.1 12.1 9.0 6.1 91.3 90.2 3.1 5.3 7.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 0 100 100 10.2 12.8 9.1 7.2 90.4 89.7 4.4 6.5 8.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 1 99 100 6.1 8.0 7.7 6.2 88.3 86.9 0.9 2.8 4.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 2 98 100 8.9 12.2 9.8 6.2 91.6 90.3 2.6 5.0 7.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------