***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 24.01.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 28.01.2019.-24.02.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 26 74 100 8.0 8.0 7.2 1.7 71.4 68.6 4.2 5.9 7.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 38 62 100 7.3 6.9 6.8 1.2 64.7 63.0 3.8 5.5 7.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 34 66 100 8.2 8.0 7.4 1.5 67.7 65.4 4.7 6.3 7.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 81 19 100 0.5 0.9 3.7 0.9 61.0 59.5 -1.5 0.0 1.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 30 70 100 8.1 8.2 5.9 1.8 71.7 68.5 4.7 6.2 7.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 19 81 100 7.4 8.1 5.2 2.4 81.1 76.4 4.1 5.4 6.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 35 65 100 6.9 6.9 7.1 1.5 69.0 66.5 3.4 5.0 6.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 41 59 100 -0.5 -0.6 4.5 1.2 66.1 63.9 -2.8 -1.6 -0.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 32 68 100 8.5 8.5 6.5 1.6 69.6 66.7 5.2 6.7 8.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 42 58 100 8.0 7.9 5.3 1.3 65.8 63.6 5.0 6.5 7.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 28 72 100 8.5 8.6 6.1 1.9 72.9 69.5 5.0 6.5 8.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 32 68 100 8.0 8.2 5.6 1.7 72.5 69.2 4.9 6.3 7.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 16 84 100 8.5 9.1 6.1 2.4 80.0 75.7 5.1 6.5 7.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 82 18 100 7.5 8.1 6.3 1.0 62.0 60.2 5.3 7.0 8.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 42 58 100 7.2 6.9 4.9 1.1 63.4 61.6 4.1 5.7 7.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 18 82 100 8.9 9.4 6.0 2.3 77.9 73.8 5.3 6.8 8.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 41 59 100 6.7 6.3 6.6 1.0 63.3 61.7 3.6 5.1 6.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 82 18 100 6.2 6.9 5.0 1.1 64.4 62.4 4.4 5.8 7.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 41 59 100 7.3 6.9 6.8 1.1 63.4 61.9 3.8 5.5 7.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 43 57 100 3.8 3.7 3.1 1.1 65.9 63.9 1.2 2.5 3.7 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 31 69 100 8.3 8.4 7.2 1.7 70.4 67.5 4.9 6.5 7.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 80 20 100 6.3 6.6 6.4 0.7 59.5 58.6 4.0 5.7 7.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 81 19 100 6.4 7.1 7.0 1.1 63.1 61.5 4.2 5.9 7.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 42 58 100 8.3 8.1 6.4 1.2 64.6 62.5 5.3 6.8 8.2 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 29 71 100 7.2 7.2 5.8 1.7 71.1 68.2 3.9 5.4 6.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 20 80 100 7.9 8.5 5.2 2.2 80.3 75.9 4.9 6.1 7.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 23 77 100 7.9 8.0 6.8 1.9 73.8 70.5 4.2 5.8 7.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 80 20 100 7.0 7.7 4.4 1.1 62.9 61.2 4.7 6.4 8.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 42 58 100 4.1 3.9 4.4 1.2 65.8 63.5 1.3 2.7 4.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 34 66 100 7.2 7.0 7.0 1.4 67.2 65.1 3.7 5.3 6.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------