***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.01.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.02.2014.-23.02.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 58 42 0 100 9999.0 5.8 7.6 87.8 58.8 45.4 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 56 44 0 100 2.4 5.6 7.4 86.2 59.2 46.5 2.3 4.2 6.8 30 Becej 27400G00 57 43 0 100 3.4 8.2 7.8 89.1 59.5 46.6 3.5 6.2 9.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 56 44 0 100 4.2 8.8 8.1 84.3 58.4 45.2 4.2 7.0 10.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 54 46 0 100 4.1 9.4 8.1 86.5 58.9 46.0 3.8 7.1 11.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 55 45 0 100 2.9 6.8 8.8 86.6 59.2 46.0 2.8 5.2 8.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 56 44 0 100 2.1 5.4 7.3 86.2 59.1 46.1 2.0 3.9 6.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 15.1 15.2 9.3 86.6 59.4 46.2 7.0 11.8 17.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 56 44 0 100 3.3 8.3 8.5 90.0 60.0 47.3 3.1 6.0 9.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 3.8 9.2 9.1 87.1 59.3 46.6 3.5 6.8 11.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 8.3 8.2 7.6 83.3 58.5 45.2 3.4 6.2 10.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 75 25 100 8.7 8.5 7.7 83.3 58.4 45.2 3.6 6.5 10.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 58 42 0 100 4.0 8.9 7.9 81.4 57.1 44.8 4.0 7.2 11.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 54 46 0 100 4.4 9.8 9.7 89.7 59.9 48.2 4.2 7.4 11.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 58 42 0 100 2.5 6.6 7.7 82.2 58.2 43.9 2.4 4.9 8.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 54 46 0 100 3.4 7.2 7.4 79.5 57.0 44.3 3.2 5.8 9.4 30 Nis 06700G01 59 41 0 100 2.2 6.9 7.8 93.5 61.7 47.4 2.1 4.5 8.0 30 Palic 37000G16 55 45 0 100 4.0 10.0 10.5 88.7 59.6 46.7 3.6 7.2 12.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 54 46 0 100 2.7 6.3 7.5 87.1 59.4 46.8 2.6 4.7 7.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 52 48 0 100 5.4 12.7 12.7 87.7 59.6 46.9 4.8 9.3 15.6 29 Sjenica 27900G10 58 42 0 100 2.9 8.3 8.1 92.9 61.0 47.8 2.7 5.6 9.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 54 46 0 100 2.7 7.1 8.3 96.1 62.4 48.7 2.5 4.7 7.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 54 46 0 100 2.8 6.0 7.9 89.0 59.8 47.3 2.8 4.7 7.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 57 43 0 100 4.8 10.9 9.4 90.2 60.0 47.1 4.9 8.3 12.8 29 Valjevo 28500G11 57 43 0 100 2.8 7.6 8.6 88.8 59.6 46.6 2.7 5.5 9.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 60 40 0 100 3.7 8.1 8.4 86.1 59.2 45.1 3.9 6.4 9.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 58 42 0 100 3.3 7.1 8.3 87.1 58.9 45.8 3.3 5.7 8.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 55 45 0 100 2.9 7.5 7.6 80.6 57.6 44.0 2.6 5.6 10.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 56 44 0 100 6.7 17.2 11.5 89.4 59.9 47.0 6.4 12.3 20.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 56 44 0 100 2.3 5.7 7.4 84.7 58.4 45.9 2.1 4.3 7.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------