***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.01.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.02.2014.-23.02.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 9999.0 6.2 7.4 1.0 60.3 57.5 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 7.2 7.5 7.3 1.0 60.2 58.0 4.1 6.3 8.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 8.0 8.4 7.7 1.1 60.4 57.5 4.8 7.1 9.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 1.2 1.5 5.3 0.9 59.3 56.7 -1.9 0.3 2.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 8.0 8.6 6.1 1.1 61.2 57.7 4.8 7.1 9.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 7.0 8.1 5.2 1.5 65.2 60.2 4.0 6.1 8.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 6.7 7.2 7.2 1.0 60.6 58.3 3.7 5.9 7.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 -1.2 -0.2 5.6 1.5 64.9 59.8 -3.9 -1.9 -0.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 8.3 8.9 7.0 1.3 62.0 58.1 5.2 7.4 9.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 8.2 9.0 6.3 1.4 63.4 58.9 5.1 7.3 9.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 8.4 9.2 6.1 1.3 62.8 58.6 5.2 7.4 9.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 7.8 8.9 6.2 1.4 64.9 59.9 4.7 6.9 9.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 8.2 9.4 5.8 1.5 65.6 60.6 5.0 7.3 9.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 8.5 9.0 7.2 1.2 60.7 57.4 5.3 7.6 9.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 75 25 100 7.2 7.2 5.2 0.7 57.9 56.1 4.3 6.3 8.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 8.6 9.5 5.8 1.3 63.2 59.0 5.3 7.7 9.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 6.6 7.0 7.1 1.0 60.1 58.0 3.8 5.8 7.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 7.6 8.5 6.0 1.4 63.6 59.2 4.6 6.7 8.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 7.2 7.6 7.6 1.0 60.0 57.7 4.0 6.3 8.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 3.8 4.9 4.1 1.5 65.4 60.5 0.9 3.0 5.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 8.1 8.6 7.3 1.1 60.8 57.5 5.0 7.2 9.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 7.1 7.5 7.3 1.0 59.7 57.7 4.0 6.2 8.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 7.6 8.0 7.8 1.1 60.1 57.4 4.3 6.6 8.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 8.3 8.9 7.2 1.3 61.9 58.1 5.1 7.4 9.5 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 7.1 7.5 5.9 1.0 60.7 57.5 4.1 6.2 8.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 7.8 9.2 5.6 1.6 67.3 61.9 4.8 7.0 9.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 7.4 7.9 6.7 1.1 60.9 57.8 4.3 6.5 8.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 7.8 8.1 5.5 0.9 59.1 56.7 4.7 6.9 9.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 4.0 5.0 5.2 1.5 64.4 59.9 0.8 3.1 5.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 7.0 7.4 7.5 1.0 60.2 57.9 4.0 6.1 8.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------