***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 22.01.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 26.01.2015.-22.02.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 45 55 100 37.1 37.9 47.8 118.0 68.7 63.7 16.6 25.2 35.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 40 60 100 34.5 35.4 44.2 122.1 70.5 64.9 16.0 23.5 32.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 84 16 100 38.0 49.2 49.1 119.1 69.5 64.0 24.0 34.1 46.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 39 61 100 54.7 57.9 57.2 124.2 72.3 66.8 29.6 40.0 52.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 31 69 100 59.0 63.2 60.1 128.5 75.2 69.5 31.2 42.0 54.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 32 68 100 47.5 54.2 62.4 132.6 77.8 70.8 23.6 32.8 43.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 39 61 100 33.2 33.4 43.6 120.7 69.8 64.7 15.9 22.9 31.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 27 73 100 79.8 92.1 71.0 141.6 81.9 74.2 48.6 60.9 73.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 31 69 100 47.0 51.1 61.1 129.3 75.9 70.3 25.3 33.8 43.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 33 67 100 57.3 65.9 67.5 133.6 78.9 72.2 32.1 42.0 53.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 35 65 100 49.5 56.1 59.2 132.2 77.1 70.6 25.7 35.3 46.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 27 73 100 52.2 63.1 62.2 140.5 80.7 73.0 22.7 33.3 45.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 31 69 100 56.1 64.1 62.4 134.9 78.6 71.6 29.2 39.7 51.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 84 16 100 47.7 60.8 60.6 123.1 72.5 65.8 34.2 44.2 55.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 83 17 100 33.5 44.8 52.4 117.1 68.0 62.5 17.7 28.5 42.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 36 64 100 45.9 52.1 58.5 131.3 76.6 70.0 23.5 32.6 42.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 36 64 100 36.8 38.8 43.1 127.3 72.6 67.2 17.2 24.9 34.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 33 67 100 54.1 63.4 74.1 133.8 79.6 72.7 28.7 38.8 50.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 42 58 100 37.9 39.3 45.7 121.8 70.4 64.6 18.7 26.7 36.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 25 75 100 58.5 72.4 94.4 145.7 83.9 76.3 30.1 40.6 52.4 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 40 60 100 48.2 52.1 55.3 125.1 73.2 67.9 25.5 35.1 46.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 40 60 100 37.4 41.0 46.1 129.0 73.4 67.0 17.3 25.5 35.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 83 17 100 29.1 37.8 49.0 120.6 70.2 64.3 18.4 26.1 34.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 44 56 100 54.4 59.9 61.9 125.2 74.2 67.8 33.6 42.9 53.2 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 85 15 100 40.2 53.4 56.9 121.1 70.8 65.8 25.4 36.4 48.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 24 76 100 46.8 55.1 65.5 140.9 81.1 74.0 22.4 31.2 41.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 85 15 100 34.1 44.0 52.3 118.5 69.1 64.0 21.9 30.8 41.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 42 58 100 46.8 48.7 54.2 120.7 70.3 64.5 18.4 29.5 43.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 30 70 100 82.9 96.5 81.4 137.6 81.2 74.1 49.1 62.4 77.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 42 58 100 35.1 35.9 45.1 119.8 69.4 64.2 16.8 24.4 33.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------