***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 22.01.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.02.2015.-08.02.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 4.4 6.3 11.0 115.5 69.5 60.6 1.7 3.3 5.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 80 20 100 3.9 5.0 9.2 103.7 65.6 57.6 1.6 3.1 5.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 80 20 100 4.4 6.4 11.2 113.0 68.2 60.0 1.5 3.3 5.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 42 58 100 10.8 12.5 14.4 134.4 74.0 63.7 3.2 6.1 9.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 37 63 100 10.0 12.3 15.6 146.4 76.8 67.6 2.9 5.3 8.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 33 67 100 9.0 12.5 19.2 167.7 81.3 72.3 2.5 4.7 7.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 80 20 100 4.1 5.5 9.2 106.1 66.8 58.6 1.5 3.1 5.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 31 69 100 15.3 21.5 20.1 178.0 83.1 72.9 4.8 8.4 13.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 35 65 100 6.6 7.6 15.5 141.3 75.7 66.7 1.9 3.4 5.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 35 65 100 8.4 10.9 18.2 158.2 79.4 70.2 2.6 4.6 7.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 34 66 100 8.7 11.5 16.4 159.5 79.6 69.9 2.5 4.6 7.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 30 70 100 8.4 12.1 18.1 178.6 83.1 72.4 2.4 4.3 7.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 29 71 100 9.8 13.4 18.6 171.1 81.9 72.5 2.8 5.1 8.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 45 55 100 8.9 9.7 14.2 124.4 71.3 63.8 2.3 4.7 8.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 80 20 100 5.6 9.0 12.6 117.9 70.0 58.1 1.8 4.0 7.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 34 66 100 7.5 9.7 16.8 160.5 79.9 69.8 2.4 4.2 6.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 80 20 100 4.8 6.6 8.5 107.1 66.9 58.0 1.6 3.5 6.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 38 62 100 8.5 11.3 19.6 155.5 78.9 70.4 2.4 4.5 7.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 80 20 100 4.5 5.7 9.5 102.9 65.3 57.6 1.6 3.4 5.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 29 71 100 9.2 13.2 25.5 176.9 83.1 74.0 2.4 4.6 7.6 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 40 60 100 6.6 7.2 13.4 129.5 72.7 63.9 1.9 3.5 5.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 4.9 6.2 8.9 108.8 67.0 58.2 2.1 3.8 6.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 83 17 100 4.2 5.9 10.5 106.1 66.0 59.0 1.3 3.1 5.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 42 58 100 9.5 10.8 15.3 132.2 73.3 65.3 2.7 5.1 8.6 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 43 57 100 7.0 7.7 13.5 126.8 72.1 63.6 2.1 3.9 6.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 26 74 100 8.7 12.6 20.1 182.8 83.7 75.2 2.2 4.2 7.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 81 19 100 5.7 8.4 12.3 119.6 70.4 61.9 2.5 4.6 7.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 80 20 100 4.7 7.6 14.3 132.3 73.4 61.9 2.0 3.7 6.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 32 68 100 13.3 17.3 21.7 163.5 80.5 72.3 4.3 7.5 11.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 81 19 100 3.4 4.5 9.7 106.1 66.4 58.7 1.3 2.6 4.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------