***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.01.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.01.2021.-21.02.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 80 20 100 6.0 5.4 5.1 0.0 49.5 50.8 3.8 5.4 6.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 81 19 100 5.6 5.0 5.2 0.0 49.8 51.1 3.5 5.1 6.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 80 20 100 6.6 6.1 5.7 0.1 51.0 51.8 4.4 6.0 7.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 0.4 -0.2 2.4 0.0 49.6 50.7 -1.5 -0.1 1.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 6.5 5.7 3.8 -0.2 47.8 49.4 4.4 5.9 7.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 56 44 0 100 3.5 4.7 2.3 -0.4 44.4 46.0 3.8 5.1 6.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 81 19 100 5.2 4.4 5.0 -0.2 47.9 49.6 3.0 4.6 6.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 -1.2 -2.0 2.8 -0.5 43.8 45.8 -2.7 -1.7 -0.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 6.9 6.3 4.7 -0.1 49.0 50.3 4.8 6.3 7.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 6.6 5.8 3.6 -0.3 46.3 47.8 4.6 6.1 7.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 6.8 6.0 4.0 -0.2 47.9 49.2 4.7 6.2 7.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 6.5 5.7 3.5 -0.3 46.1 47.7 4.6 6.0 7.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 52 48 0 100 4.4 5.7 3.3 -0.3 45.9 47.1 4.7 6.1 7.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 7.2 6.7 5.2 0.2 51.9 52.3 4.9 6.6 8.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 80 20 100 5.8 5.7 3.9 0.4 54.2 54.5 3.8 5.3 6.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 51 49 0 100 4.8 6.1 3.3 -0.3 46.0 47.5 5.0 6.5 7.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 80 20 100 5.2 4.5 5.0 -0.2 47.4 49.4 3.2 4.7 6.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 5.8 5.1 3.5 -0.2 47.5 48.6 4.0 5.3 6.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 80 20 100 5.8 5.3 5.5 0.1 51.2 52.1 3.5 5.2 6.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 0.8 1.7 1.3 -0.6 41.9 44.1 1.0 2.3 3.5 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 6.7 6.1 5.3 0.0 49.8 51.0 4.6 6.1 7.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 80 20 100 5.9 5.3 5.3 0.0 49.8 51.3 3.7 5.4 6.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 6.0 5.6 5.8 0.2 52.4 52.9 3.8 5.4 6.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 7.0 6.5 5.0 0.1 50.9 51.4 4.9 6.4 7.8 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 5.5 4.8 3.8 -0.1 48.0 49.6 3.6 5.0 6.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 56 44 0 100 4.2 5.3 2.6 -0.5 43.4 45.5 4.5 5.7 6.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 6.0 5.2 4.5 -0.2 47.1 48.9 3.9 5.4 6.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 6.7 6.2 3.1 0.1 50.6 51.5 4.5 6.1 7.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 2.9 2.1 2.8 -0.2 46.9 48.1 1.0 2.4 3.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 81 19 100 5.4 4.9 5.2 0.0 49.8 51.1 3.3 4.9 6.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------