***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.01.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 12.02.2018.-18.02.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 51 49 0 100 3.9 9.9 9.6 95.8 62.5 45.5 3.5 6.6 11.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 57 43 0 100 2.5 9.3 9.3 114.1 68.4 47.7 2.4 4.9 8.6 30 Becej 27400G00 51 49 0 100 4.0 11.4 9.5 96.8 62.9 47.4 3.3 7.1 12.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 13.1 14.2 11.0 93.3 61.7 46.6 6.3 10.5 15.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 12.6 13.4 10.5 90.9 60.2 48.3 5.8 10.0 15.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 9.0 11.1 11.9 109.3 66.3 53.4 4.1 7.1 11.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 60 40 0 100 2.1 7.9 9.0 111.4 67.7 47.1 2.0 4.2 7.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 52 48 0 100 11.7 20.8 12.0 101.1 63.6 53.6 11.8 16.5 21.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 10.1 10.6 10.8 90.1 59.6 48.9 4.1 7.7 13.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 13.5 14.5 12.0 95.8 61.6 52.0 6.3 10.7 16.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 9.9 10.7 10.5 94.7 61.2 50.5 4.1 7.5 12.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 12.8 14.4 10.7 100.4 63.4 53.1 6.2 10.2 15.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 10.8 12.7 11.9 102.9 64.2 53.2 4.4 8.1 13.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 51 49 0 100 5.3 13.4 12.2 97.6 62.7 50.0 4.7 9.0 14.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 52 48 0 100 4.0 11.7 11.4 101.3 65.3 45.9 3.5 7.0 12.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 9.5 10.5 10.9 98.0 62.4 51.1 4.1 7.3 11.6 30 Nis 06700G01 61 39 0 100 2.1 8.6 8.8 115.4 68.9 47.3 2.0 4.3 7.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 12.7 13.5 12.8 96.2 61.6 52.0 5.6 9.8 15.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 56 44 0 100 3.4 11.2 9.5 112.1 67.8 48.4 3.2 6.3 10.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 56 44 0 100 5.8 14.8 16.3 105.0 64.8 53.9 5.8 9.9 15.2 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 9.9 10.3 10.0 90.0 59.9 47.0 3.9 7.5 12.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 60 40 0 100 3.0 10.2 9.5 118.3 69.7 48.5 3.1 5.6 9.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 55 45 0 100 3.6 9.7 9.9 105.2 65.6 49.0 3.5 6.2 9.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 11.2 12.0 11.2 94.4 61.5 50.2 4.5 8.4 13.7 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 75 25 100 10.9 11.3 10.8 92.6 61.0 45.3 3.4 7.4 13.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 8.4 10.5 11.4 107.5 66.1 54.1 3.1 6.1 10.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 51 49 0 100 3.2 9.3 10.2 95.5 62.2 45.3 2.6 5.8 10.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 10.6 11.9 10.7 96.1 62.8 47.4 3.7 7.6 13.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 53 47 0 100 10.9 22.5 14.1 100.1 63.0 52.6 10.8 16.8 24.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 57 43 0 100 3.0 9.7 9.3 108.1 66.7 47.2 2.9 5.6 9.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------