***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 17.01.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 11.02.2019.-17.02.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 36 64 100 12.4 13.8 13.6 133.1 73.6 62.7 2.9 6.0 10.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 31 69 100 9.3 10.7 12.8 142.6 75.9 63.1 2.3 4.5 7.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 38 62 100 14.8 16.7 13.4 133.3 73.6 61.8 3.0 6.8 12.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 38 62 100 16.7 20.8 16.6 148.2 77.2 63.0 4.9 9.0 14.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 40 60 100 16.1 18.4 15.0 134.4 73.9 62.0 4.5 8.6 14.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 9.9 13.7 13.3 122.0 70.4 58.3 4.6 7.8 12.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 31 69 100 7.8 9.2 12.6 144.4 76.3 63.5 1.6 3.4 6.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 81 19 100 17.9 23.7 14.5 118.5 69.2 58.6 9.9 15.2 22.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 42 58 100 13.3 14.8 15.0 129.3 72.5 61.6 3.6 7.0 12.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 12.0 16.9 14.8 120.9 69.8 59.8 5.3 9.5 15.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 8.8 13.8 13.6 125.1 71.3 59.9 3.0 6.4 11.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 80 20 100 11.9 17.5 13.4 121.3 70.2 58.6 5.0 9.3 15.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 12.3 17.5 14.0 120.9 70.1 58.8 5.4 9.7 15.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 35 65 100 17.4 18.8 16.7 132.3 73.3 62.8 5.3 9.5 15.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 35 65 100 13.7 18.9 17.6 167.0 80.5 63.3 3.6 7.0 11.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 9.3 14.5 13.8 127.5 72.0 59.8 3.5 6.9 11.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 30 70 100 8.1 9.4 12.7 145.2 76.5 62.0 2.0 4.0 6.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 11.7 16.1 15.4 118.8 69.1 59.9 4.9 9.0 14.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 34 66 100 11.5 13.2 13.1 140.0 75.3 62.4 2.9 5.7 9.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 12.0 16.6 19.0 119.1 69.1 59.2 5.3 9.5 15.2 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 41 59 100 14.5 16.8 14.5 134.3 73.9 62.7 3.6 7.4 12.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 30 70 100 9.1 10.2 13.2 140.9 75.5 61.0 2.9 5.0 7.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 35 65 100 11.1 12.4 13.9 136.5 74.5 61.9 3.3 6.0 9.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 39 61 100 16.0 16.8 14.9 126.0 71.5 61.6 4.7 8.7 14.2 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 37 63 100 17.0 19.9 15.9 137.7 74.7 63.8 3.5 7.7 14.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 8.7 12.7 14.1 120.5 70.1 57.8 3.5 6.6 11.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 37 63 100 12.9 14.3 14.3 132.5 73.4 63.1 2.4 5.5 10.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 9.9 18.7 15.8 150.1 77.4 61.9 3.3 7.1 12.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 19.3 25.8 16.2 117.7 68.7 59.7 9.5 15.8 24.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 33 67 100 10.8 12.2 13.0 139.8 75.3 63.1 2.9 5.5 9.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------