***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 17.01.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 11.02.2013.-17.02.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 82 18 100 9999.0 3.7 10.1 89.1 58.7 52.7 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 6.0 5.4 8.9 80.4 54.8 48.5 2.3 4.5 7.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 81 19 100 9.2 8.9 10.4 85.8 57.0 51.4 3.0 6.8 12.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 11.6 13.4 13.4 100.1 62.9 54.0 4.9 9.0 14.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 11.2 12.7 13.1 98.6 62.1 53.5 4.5 8.6 14.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 81 19 100 9.6 11.9 15.2 107.7 65.1 55.3 4.6 7.8 12.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 4.8 4.5 8.9 84.2 56.6 49.0 1.6 3.4 6.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 18.6 20.1 14.3 100.6 62.1 52.0 9.9 15.2 22.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 9.2 9.9 12.7 93.6 59.9 52.0 3.6 7.0 12.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 12.2 13.1 14.0 97.1 61.0 52.5 5.3 9.5 15.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 9.0 10.5 13.2 103.4 63.6 53.1 3.0 6.4 11.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 12.5 13.9 12.9 102.3 62.6 51.0 5.0 9.3 15.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 12.6 14.9 14.0 107.5 64.7 53.8 5.4 9.7 15.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 12.1 11.4 12.7 85.4 55.9 50.1 5.3 9.5 15.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 9.3 10.7 13.3 99.6 63.1 52.4 3.6 7.0 11.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 9.3 11.5 13.6 106.9 64.9 53.9 3.5 6.9 11.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 5.3 4.9 8.9 83.9 56.9 48.4 2.0 4.0 6.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 11.6 12.6 15.4 96.4 60.8 53.4 4.9 9.0 14.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 80 20 100 7.5 6.6 9.2 79.2 54.1 48.6 2.9 5.7 9.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 12.0 14.3 19.1 105.0 64.1 55.8 5.3 9.5 15.2 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 9.8 10.3 11.6 91.7 59.5 52.8 3.6 7.4 12.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 6.3 6.0 9.4 84.7 56.8 49.4 2.9 5.0 7.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 81 19 100 7.5 6.8 10.0 79.5 54.2 48.8 3.3 6.0 9.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 11.2 11.2 13.1 89.7 58.4 51.8 4.7 8.7 14.2 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 10.6 11.8 12.0 94.3 60.6 54.1 3.5 7.7 14.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 8.9 10.7 14.0 107.2 64.7 54.3 3.5 6.6 11.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 81 19 100 7.7 8.4 11.0 91.8 59.6 53.3 2.4 5.5 10.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 9.8 11.5 13.7 101.2 63.4 53.2 3.3 7.1 12.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 19.6 21.8 17.0 100.2 62.2 54.5 9.5 15.8 24.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 81 19 100 7.0 6.5 9.2 81.9 55.4 49.5 2.9 5.5 9.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------