***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 17.01.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 21.01.2013.-17.02.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 83 17 100 9999.0 26.1 48.9 108.4 62.9 57.0 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 82 18 100 27.4 28.1 43.3 101.1 57.9 52.3 17.0 24.3 32.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 84 16 100 38.2 42.6 48.4 106.5 61.5 56.4 24.6 34.5 46.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 82 18 100 43.8 51.7 55.8 112.6 66.0 60.1 28.2 39.2 51.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 82 18 100 43.1 50.4 55.2 111.8 65.5 59.8 27.9 38.7 50.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 80 20 100 36.9 43.3 56.7 111.6 65.8 60.3 22.6 32.4 43.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 80 20 100 26.1 26.7 43.1 101.8 58.4 52.2 16.4 23.0 30.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 81 19 100 61.8 70.0 61.3 111.7 65.4 59.8 44.1 56.6 70.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 82 18 100 35.0 40.1 55.5 110.7 64.7 59.3 23.1 31.5 41.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 82 18 100 44.0 49.8 59.4 110.0 64.2 58.9 30.0 40.0 51.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 82 18 100 38.0 45.7 54.1 113.1 66.6 60.5 23.8 33.8 45.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 37.4 43.5 53.9 110.3 64.5 59.2 19.4 30.8 45.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 42.6 48.9 55.7 111.2 65.4 60.4 26.6 37.1 49.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 84 16 100 50.5 54.9 57.6 106.4 61.4 57.0 35.8 46.7 58.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 82 18 100 35.2 45.6 55.0 113.7 66.4 60.4 16.5 29.0 45.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 34.7 42.0 54.3 113.8 67.2 61.4 20.5 29.9 40.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 82 18 100 27.4 28.2 41.9 101.1 58.0 51.3 17.9 24.7 32.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 84 16 100 40.0 44.9 64.5 108.9 63.3 58.1 27.9 36.7 46.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 84 16 100 31.1 32.6 44.7 102.2 58.6 53.5 20.7 28.3 36.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 82 18 100 40.4 48.9 81.9 115.3 67.7 61.0 26.3 36.3 47.5 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 84 16 100 37.1 42.8 52.4 110.6 64.6 58.9 25.1 33.9 43.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 85 15 100 28.0 29.8 44.2 102.4 58.9 52.5 18.5 25.6 33.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 85 15 100 29.8 32.3 48.2 104.7 60.3 56.0 19.6 27.1 35.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 85 15 100 45.5 50.7 57.2 107.7 62.4 57.4 32.2 42.2 53.3 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 82 18 100 40.8 45.1 54.3 107.2 62.0 56.7 25.1 36.1 48.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 39 61 100 42.8 41.9 58.5 115.3 68.3 63.0 19.6 29.0 40.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 81 19 100 35.3 38.7 51.7 106.7 61.6 55.9 21.8 31.0 42.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 81 19 100 31.9 41.2 55.1 114.2 67.0 61.0 15.7 26.3 40.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 85 15 100 62.8 71.0 70.4 110.0 64.1 58.3 45.7 58.6 72.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 81 19 100 28.3 29.2 44.4 102.3 58.6 53.2 17.7 25.1 33.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------