***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 17.01.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 28.01.2013.-03.02.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 57 43 0 100 9999.0 2.2 2.8 -1.0 38.7 44.9 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 60 40 0 100 1.5 2.4 2.4 -1.4 34.5 43.1 2.2 4.1 6.0 30 Becej 27400G00 58 42 0 100 2.4 3.9 3.2 -0.9 40.1 45.9 3.0 5.1 7.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 56 44 0 100 -3.2 -1.5 1.4 -0.5 44.2 47.0 -2.7 -0.9 0.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 51 49 0 100 2.5 4.4 2.3 -0.3 47.3 49.4 2.8 4.7 6.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 4.5 4.9 2.1 0.9 60.1 58.2 2.0 3.8 5.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 61 39 0 100 0.9 1.9 2.2 -1.3 34.9 43.3 1.7 3.7 5.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 -0.9 -1.3 2.2 0.3 53.5 54.1 -3.2 -1.6 0.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 53 47 0 100 2.9 5.0 3.0 -0.3 47.0 49.5 3.3 5.4 7.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 75 25 100 5.9 5.2 2.6 0.1 50.9 52.2 3.2 5.1 6.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 75 25 100 5.9 5.2 2.6 0.1 51.6 52.3 3.1 5.1 6.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 5.9 5.6 2.7 0.4 54.4 54.2 3.2 5.1 6.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 5.6 5.7 2.5 0.7 57.7 56.3 3.0 4.9 6.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 57 43 0 100 3.1 5.4 3.1 -0.5 45.2 48.8 3.8 6.0 8.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 56 44 0 100 2.3 3.8 1.3 -0.7 42.2 45.1 2.8 4.6 6.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 6.0 5.6 2.4 0.4 54.0 53.7 3.2 5.2 7.1 30 Nis 06700G01 61 39 0 100 1.4 2.2 2.1 -1.5 34.1 42.7 2.1 3.9 5.6 30 Palic 37000G16 55 45 0 100 2.1 4.1 2.5 0.1 51.5 52.9 2.5 4.0 5.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 60 40 0 100 1.5 2.6 2.7 -1.3 35.7 43.7 2.2 4.3 6.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 53 47 0 100 -0.4 1.9 0.9 0.3 53.5 54.8 -0.1 1.6 3.2 29 Sjenica 27900G10 55 45 0 100 2.7 4.4 3.1 -0.6 43.9 47.6 3.2 5.1 6.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 62 38 0 100 1.8 2.8 2.4 -1.5 34.5 42.6 2.7 4.7 6.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 59 41 0 100 2.0 3.3 3.1 -1.1 38.7 45.1 2.7 4.6 6.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 57 43 0 100 3.0 5.2 3.2 -0.3 46.9 49.9 3.6 5.6 7.5 29 Valjevo 28500G11 53 47 0 100 1.7 2.9 1.6 -0.8 41.0 45.7 2.1 3.8 5.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 5.2 5.5 2.5 0.8 60.2 58.0 2.8 4.5 6.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 55 45 0 100 1.6 2.9 2.2 -0.9 39.4 45.1 2.1 4.1 6.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 55 45 0 100 3.0 5.0 1.7 -0.4 45.9 47.9 3.5 5.4 7.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 54 46 0 100 -0.5 2.1 1.8 0.2 52.7 53.9 -0.1 1.8 3.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 60 40 0 100 1.2 2.2 2.6 -1.3 35.5 43.7 1.9 3.9 5.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------