***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 17.01.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 21.01.2013.-27.01.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 35 65 100 9999.0 5.6 5.6 2.2 76.9 72.0 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 82 18 100 3.9 4.5 4.3 0.9 61.6 59.3 1.6 3.3 5.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 36 64 100 6.8 7.7 5.8 2.1 75.2 70.1 2.4 4.5 6.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 42 58 100 1.9 2.5 2.7 1.9 71.5 67.2 -2.7 -0.4 1.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 23 77 100 7.1 9.0 5.3 3.3 84.6 78.3 2.7 4.6 6.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 14 86 100 6.8 8.7 4.9 3.9 87.4 83.1 2.3 4.0 5.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 82 18 100 3.5 4.4 4.3 1.1 64.6 61.5 1.1 2.9 4.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 29 71 100 0.8 2.0 4.4 2.8 80.0 75.3 -3.1 -1.4 0.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 23 77 100 7.8 9.7 6.2 3.2 84.2 77.8 3.1 5.1 7.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 31 69 100 6.7 8.1 5.2 2.9 80.5 75.1 2.6 4.5 6.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 20 80 100 7.4 9.5 5.8 3.6 86.2 80.3 2.7 4.7 6.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 21 79 100 7.5 9.4 5.3 3.4 85.0 80.0 2.7 4.7 6.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 14 86 100 7.4 9.3 6.0 3.9 87.4 83.0 2.9 4.7 6.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 83 17 100 5.6 7.0 5.0 1.3 65.0 61.7 2.7 5.0 7.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 85 15 100 4.1 4.8 2.8 0.9 60.5 58.3 1.3 3.5 5.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 18 82 100 8.1 10.4 5.7 3.8 87.6 82.0 3.3 5.3 7.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 3.5 3.0 3.2 0.1 51.7 51.7 1.2 2.8 4.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 39 61 100 4.6 5.1 4.5 2.2 73.5 69.5 1.6 3.1 4.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 81 19 100 4.3 5.1 4.6 1.0 62.9 60.2 1.6 3.6 5.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 39 61 100 3.9 3.9 2.4 1.6 67.8 65.5 -0.2 1.8 3.7 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 27 73 100 7.2 8.6 6.2 2.8 81.5 75.5 2.8 4.7 6.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 75 25 100 4.4 3.3 3.2 -0.2 47.2 48.3 1.8 3.6 5.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 43 57 100 5.2 5.1 5.1 1.2 65.5 61.9 1.7 3.5 5.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 39 61 100 7.1 7.7 5.5 2.1 72.7 68.3 2.8 4.9 6.8 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 42 58 100 5.2 6.0 4.2 2.1 74.7 70.2 1.7 3.4 5.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 13 87 100 6.6 8.3 5.2 3.7 87.5 83.6 2.8 4.3 5.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 36 64 100 6.3 7.3 5.0 2.2 76.2 71.7 2.2 4.1 5.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 42 58 100 6.9 7.5 3.4 2.0 71.3 67.2 2.0 4.4 6.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 37 63 100 4.1 4.4 3.7 2.0 71.2 68.0 -0.2 1.9 3.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 83 17 100 3.7 5.1 4.9 1.4 68.2 64.5 1.3 3.1 4.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------