***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 17.01.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 21.01.2013.-17.02.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 9999.0 -1.9 -1.5 0.6 59.7 58.1 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 75 25 100 -2.5 -2.9 -2.2 0.1 51.7 52.8 -4.4 -3.1 -1.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 75 25 100 -0.2 -0.1 -1.7 0.5 58.4 57.3 -1.9 -0.7 0.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 -5.9 -5.7 -4.1 0.7 59.7 58.4 -7.7 -6.4 -5.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 34 66 100 -1.8 -2.1 -3.1 1.1 66.2 63.0 -4.2 -3.1 -2.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 29 71 100 -2.7 -2.4 -4.2 1.8 75.6 70.6 -5.2 -4.1 -3.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 51 49 0 100 -4.4 -2.6 -2.1 0.2 53.3 53.8 -4.2 -2.8 -1.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 33 67 100 -7.0 -7.1 -4.0 1.4 68.8 65.0 -9.3 -8.2 -7.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 35 65 100 -1.0 -1.3 -2.5 1.0 64.5 61.7 -3.4 -2.3 -1.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 35 65 100 -1.4 -1.6 -3.6 1.2 66.6 63.2 -3.7 -2.6 -1.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 30 70 100 -1.5 -1.7 -3.2 1.3 68.2 64.7 -4.0 -2.9 -1.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 32 68 100 -2.4 -2.5 -3.3 1.4 69.7 66.0 -4.7 -3.7 -2.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 27 73 100 -1.7 -1.6 -3.4 1.6 72.9 68.6 -4.3 -3.2 -2.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 75 25 100 -1.5 -1.5 -3.0 0.5 57.9 57.0 -3.0 -1.9 -0.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 52 48 0 100 -4.0 -2.6 -4.1 0.0 50.7 52.0 -3.8 -2.6 -1.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 31 69 100 -0.9 -0.9 -3.4 1.4 70.5 66.7 -3.3 -2.3 -1.2 30 Nis 06700G01 53 47 0 100 -4.5 -3.1 -2.4 -0.1 47.9 50.9 -4.2 -3.0 -1.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 36 64 100 -3.4 -3.7 -4.2 1.2 65.2 62.2 -5.5 -4.5 -3.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 -2.3 -2.7 -2.1 0.1 52.1 53.2 -4.2 -2.9 -1.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 35 65 100 -6.3 -6.3 -5.3 1.5 69.2 65.2 -9.1 -7.8 -6.6 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 37 63 100 -1.3 -1.8 -1.9 0.8 62.4 60.2 -3.7 -2.6 -1.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 54 46 0 100 -4.6 -3.4 -2.5 -0.3 45.8 49.7 -4.4 -3.1 -1.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 75 25 100 -2.4 -2.7 -2.2 0.2 53.6 54.2 -4.0 -2.9 -1.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 37 63 100 -1.7 -2.2 -3.0 0.8 61.0 59.3 -4.0 -2.9 -1.9 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 -2.3 -2.2 -3.1 0.7 60.3 58.6 -4.0 -2.8 -1.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 26 74 100 -1.7 -1.4 -3.1 1.8 75.4 70.9 -4.1 -3.1 -2.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 -2.0 -1.8 -2.2 0.7 60.6 58.8 -4.0 -2.6 -1.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 -3.3 -3.2 -3.8 0.6 59.0 58.1 -4.9 -3.8 -2.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 36 64 100 -3.9 -4.1 -4.7 1.3 66.3 63.1 -6.3 -5.2 -4.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 75 25 100 -2.0 -2.3 -1.9 0.3 54.4 54.4 -3.9 -2.6 -1.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------