***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 15.01.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.02.2015.-08.02.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 4.5 5.6 10.8 108.9 66.0 52.7 1.7 3.3 5.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 53 47 0 100 1.8 4.5 9.1 98.8 62.4 49.0 1.6 3.1 5.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 4.7 6.1 10.9 110.8 66.9 53.9 1.5 3.3 5.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 8.1 10.2 12.3 111.9 67.2 53.3 3.2 6.1 9.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 7.1 9.8 12.9 119.5 69.5 55.0 2.9 5.3 8.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 53 47 0 100 2.7 9.2 13.4 127.8 72.0 54.4 2.5 4.7 7.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 4.3 4.4 8.8 93.7 60.3 48.1 1.5 3.1 5.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 53 47 0 100 5.1 13.9 13.6 116.2 68.3 54.7 4.8 8.4 13.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 75 25 100 4.6 6.3 13.3 120.3 69.5 55.2 1.9 3.4 5.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 51 49 0 100 2.8 7.8 13.7 115.9 68.0 55.0 2.6 4.6 7.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 52 48 0 100 2.7 8.8 12.6 124.5 71.0 55.7 2.5 4.6 7.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 56 44 0 100 2.4 8.1 12.6 124.5 71.0 55.1 2.4 4.3 7.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 55 45 0 100 2.9 9.8 13.2 128.4 72.2 55.5 2.8 5.1 8.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 75 25 100 6.6 7.2 12.0 100.2 62.4 50.9 2.3 4.7 8.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 5.9 7.7 11.5 107.0 66.2 52.2 1.8 4.0 7.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 52 48 0 100 2.5 7.4 12.4 124.3 71.0 54.8 2.4 4.2 6.5 30 Nis 06700G01 59 41 0 100 1.7 4.9 8.4 89.4 58.6 45.3 1.6 3.5 6.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 75 25 100 6.1 7.0 13.9 104.0 63.9 53.2 2.4 4.5 7.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 53 47 0 100 1.9 5.5 9.5 102.7 64.0 50.4 1.6 3.4 5.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 52 48 0 100 2.7 6.7 15.9 98.5 62.1 51.6 2.4 4.6 7.6 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 4.7 6.4 12.2 118.0 68.9 55.1 1.9 3.5 5.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 60 40 0 100 2.1 5.0 8.8 90.3 59.2 45.9 2.1 3.8 6.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 52 48 0 100 1.6 5.7 10.2 105.0 65.0 51.7 1.3 3.1 5.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 7.0 8.2 12.4 104.8 64.3 52.9 2.7 5.1 8.6 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 5.2 6.3 12.3 108.3 65.5 53.1 2.1 3.9 6.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 57 43 0 100 2.3 8.5 13.0 128.2 72.1 53.7 2.2 4.2 7.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 6.0 7.0 11.5 105.0 64.4 52.1 2.5 4.6 7.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 4.9 6.3 11.9 111.6 67.3 52.5 2.0 3.7 6.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 4.7 10.2 14.1 97.0 61.4 51.4 4.3 7.5 11.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 3.6 4.2 9.6 102.9 64.0 50.9 1.3 2.6 4.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------