***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 15.01.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.02.2015.-15.02.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 7.0 7.4 7.0 1.2 60.6 57.9 4.0 6.1 8.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 75 25 100 6.5 6.9 6.9 1.2 61.1 58.6 3.4 5.5 7.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 75 25 100 7.3 7.6 7.2 1.2 60.3 57.9 4.0 6.3 8.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 52 48 0 100 -2.6 1.3 5.0 1.1 59.9 57.7 -2.2 0.0 2.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 53 47 0 100 3.7 7.6 5.6 1.1 60.1 57.6 4.2 6.4 8.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 34 66 100 8.1 7.3 4.7 1.4 62.6 59.5 3.9 5.8 7.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 75 25 100 6.1 6.6 6.8 1.2 61.4 58.7 2.9 5.1 7.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 53 47 0 100 -3.7 -0.8 4.8 1.1 60.1 57.8 -3.4 -1.8 -0.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 52 48 0 100 4.0 8.0 6.3 1.1 59.9 57.4 4.4 6.7 8.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 52 48 0 100 4.0 7.8 5.5 1.1 60.0 57.6 4.4 6.5 8.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 54 46 0 100 3.9 7.9 5.5 1.1 60.5 57.9 4.4 6.6 8.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 52 48 0 100 4.0 7.6 5.3 1.1 60.4 58.0 4.3 6.4 8.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 36 64 100 8.9 8.0 5.0 1.3 61.7 58.9 4.6 6.6 8.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 75 25 100 7.5 7.8 6.6 1.1 59.3 57.1 4.2 6.5 8.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 6.6 6.9 5.1 1.0 59.3 57.5 3.4 5.7 7.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 34 66 100 9.5 8.5 5.2 1.2 61.1 58.4 5.0 7.1 9.1 30 Nis 06700G01 52 48 0 100 2.8 6.5 6.7 1.2 61.3 58.7 3.2 5.2 7.1 30 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 3.6 7.0 5.2 1.1 59.4 57.2 3.9 6.0 7.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 75 25 100 6.6 7.0 7.1 1.2 60.7 58.4 3.2 5.5 7.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 3.4 3.6 3.3 1.0 59.3 57.5 0.9 2.7 4.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 51 49 0 100 3.9 7.8 6.7 1.1 60.0 57.4 4.2 6.5 8.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 52 48 0 100 3.1 7.2 7.0 1.2 61.1 58.6 3.5 5.7 7.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 51 49 0 100 3.1 7.1 7.2 1.2 60.2 57.9 3.5 5.7 7.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 7.7 7.9 6.4 1.1 59.4 57.1 4.3 6.6 8.8 29 Valjevo 28500G11 51 49 0 100 3.2 6.8 5.5 1.1 60.1 57.5 3.5 5.6 7.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 36 64 100 8.6 7.8 4.8 1.2 62.0 59.2 4.7 6.5 8.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 75 25 100 7.1 7.5 6.2 1.2 60.7 57.8 4.0 6.2 8.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 53 47 0 100 3.4 7.8 5.2 1.1 60.0 57.9 3.9 6.4 8.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 75 25 100 3.4 3.5 4.4 1.0 59.3 57.4 0.5 2.5 4.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 6.4 6.9 7.0 1.2 61.0 58.5 3.3 5.5 7.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------