***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 15.01.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 19.01.2015.-25.01.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 0 100 100 0.4 3.6 2.9 4.7 96.0 95.3 -3.5 -2.1 -0.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 0 100 100 -0.5 2.1 2.3 4.3 94.1 93.2 -4.6 -3.2 -1.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 0 100 100 1.3 4.0 2.3 4.2 94.8 93.9 -2.5 -1.1 0.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 0 100 100 -3.2 -1.1 -0.8 4.0 89.8 89.3 -8.3 -6.4 -4.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 0 100 100 -0.5 0.9 0.1 3.8 89.4 88.8 -4.2 -2.8 -1.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 1 99 100 -1.2 0.1 -1.9 3.9 87.8 87.3 -5.1 -3.6 -2.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 0 100 100 -0.4 2.3 2.4 4.5 94.0 93.2 -4.7 -3.1 -1.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 0 100 100 -4.6 -2.7 -0.5 4.5 89.8 89.4 -9.3 -7.6 -6.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 0 100 100 0.4 2.0 0.5 3.6 89.3 88.6 -3.6 -2.1 -0.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 0 100 100 -0.3 1.0 -0.1 4.1 89.2 88.6 -3.8 -2.5 -1.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 0 100 100 -0.4 0.8 -0.4 3.8 87.1 86.7 -4.2 -2.8 -1.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 0 100 100 -0.7 0.7 -0.3 4.2 88.4 88.0 -4.7 -3.3 -1.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 0 100 100 -0.4 0.4 -1.1 3.6 84.6 84.4 -4.2 -2.8 -1.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 0 100 100 0.1 1.4 0.7 3.6 89.5 88.7 -3.1 -2.0 -0.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 1 99 100 -0.3 1.4 0.1 3.8 89.8 89.0 -4.4 -2.9 -1.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 0 100 100 0.2 1.1 -1.0 3.6 85.6 85.3 -3.5 -2.1 -0.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 0 100 100 -1.0 1.1 1.9 4.1 92.8 91.9 -4.7 -3.3 -2.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 0 100 100 -1.8 -0.8 -1.0 3.8 86.2 85.6 -5.4 -4.1 -2.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 0 100 100 -0.4 2.3 2.1 4.1 94.4 93.5 -4.4 -3.0 -1.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 1 99 100 -3.8 -1.8 -1.8 4.4 88.5 88.0 -9.0 -7.1 -5.3 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 0 100 100 0.1 2.4 1.8 4.0 92.7 91.9 -3.8 -2.4 -1.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 0 100 100 -0.9 1.4 1.9 3.9 93.7 92.8 -4.4 -3.1 -1.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 0 100 100 -0.6 1.6 1.7 3.8 93.9 92.8 -4.1 -2.8 -1.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 2 98 100 -0.7 0.4 0.2 3.4 87.5 86.6 -4.0 -2.8 -1.7 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 0 100 100 -0.2 2.3 1.4 4.6 94.7 94.1 -3.7 -2.4 -1.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 0 100 100 -0.5 0.7 -0.5 4.2 88.4 88.0 -4.2 -2.9 -1.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 0 100 100 0.4 3.4 2.2 4.6 95.0 94.3 -3.9 -2.3 -0.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 1 99 100 -1.1 0.1 -0.6 3.6 87.1 86.6 -5.2 -3.7 -2.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 6 94 100 -2.2 -1.4 -2.0 3.6 82.7 82.1 -6.6 -5.0 -3.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 0 100 100 -0.2 2.8 2.5 4.4 94.9 94.0 -4.3 -2.8 -1.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------