***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.01.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.01.2021.-14.02.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 31 69 100 6.7 6.5 6.1 1.4 69.2 65.9 3.2 4.7 6.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 37 63 100 6.2 6.2 6.2 1.4 68.5 65.3 2.9 4.5 5.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 33 67 100 7.4 7.3 6.7 1.5 69.3 65.8 3.9 5.5 7.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 0.4 1.2 3.2 1.2 65.7 62.6 -1.5 -0.1 1.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 36 64 100 7.1 6.9 4.7 1.2 66.7 63.5 3.9 5.4 6.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 33 67 100 6.4 6.4 3.7 1.5 70.5 65.7 3.5 4.8 6.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 41 59 100 5.8 5.7 5.9 1.2 67.0 64.1 2.5 4.1 5.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 -0.8 -0.4 3.8 0.9 63.3 60.7 -2.3 -1.2 -0.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 36 64 100 7.7 7.3 5.3 1.0 64.1 61.6 4.5 6.0 7.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 38 62 100 7.2 6.8 4.5 1.0 64.1 61.4 4.1 5.6 7.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 32 68 100 7.5 7.3 5.0 1.3 68.5 64.6 4.2 5.7 7.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 35 65 100 7.3 7.1 4.5 1.2 67.1 63.6 4.2 5.7 7.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 28 72 100 7.4 7.5 4.7 1.6 72.4 67.6 4.1 5.6 6.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 29 71 100 8.2 8.6 6.6 1.9 74.3 69.0 4.5 6.1 7.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 5.4 6.0 4.2 1.0 63.7 61.3 3.3 4.8 6.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 32 68 100 7.8 7.7 4.5 1.4 69.4 65.3 4.5 6.0 7.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 42 58 100 5.6 5.6 5.9 1.3 67.4 64.3 2.7 4.1 5.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 37 63 100 6.0 5.8 4.5 1.2 66.9 63.1 3.3 4.6 5.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 35 65 100 6.5 6.6 6.5 1.5 69.5 66.1 3.0 4.7 6.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 2.8 3.1 2.3 0.7 60.5 58.6 1.0 2.3 3.5 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 34 66 100 7.4 7.2 6.1 1.3 67.5 64.3 4.2 5.7 7.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 36 64 100 6.6 6.7 6.3 1.5 69.9 66.4 3.2 4.8 6.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 33 67 100 6.7 6.8 6.9 1.7 71.5 67.5 3.3 4.8 6.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 32 68 100 7.9 8.0 6.1 1.5 70.7 66.1 4.5 6.1 7.5 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 31 69 100 6.1 6.0 4.9 1.4 69.1 65.5 3.1 4.5 5.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 32 68 100 6.7 6.5 3.8 1.1 67.4 64.3 4.1 5.3 6.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 31 69 100 6.8 6.7 5.6 1.4 69.2 65.7 3.5 5.0 6.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 6.2 7.0 3.7 1.1 64.8 61.9 4.0 5.6 7.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 37 63 100 3.9 3.7 3.9 1.2 66.8 63.1 1.1 2.4 3.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 36 64 100 6.1 6.1 6.2 1.4 68.5 65.4 2.8 4.4 5.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------