***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.01.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.01.2016.-14.02.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 54 46 0 100 2.8 3.5 3.1 -0.8 36.6 41.4 3.2 4.7 6.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 5.1 4.2 3.7 -0.2 47.0 49.2 2.9 4.5 5.9 30 Becej 27400G00 54 46 0 100 3.6 4.6 3.5 -0.6 40.4 43.8 3.9 5.5 7.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 53 47 0 100 -1.8 -1.2 0.8 -0.8 37.3 40.8 -1.5 -0.1 1.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 56 44 0 100 3.5 4.0 1.4 -1.1 33.5 37.6 3.9 5.4 6.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 64 36 0 100 2.9 2.8 -0.2 -1.7 25.4 31.0 3.5 4.8 6.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 4.8 3.5 3.4 -0.4 43.9 47.2 2.5 4.1 5.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 64 36 0 100 -2.8 -2.6 0.7 -1.4 28.5 33.3 -2.3 -1.2 -0.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 55 45 0 100 4.1 4.7 2.4 -0.9 35.4 39.1 4.5 6.0 7.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 61 39 0 100 3.6 4.0 1.5 -1.2 31.6 35.9 4.1 5.6 7.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 63 37 0 100 3.5 3.8 1.2 -1.3 29.3 34.1 4.2 5.7 7.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 66 34 0 100 3.5 3.6 0.9 -1.5 26.5 31.8 4.2 5.7 7.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 71 29 0 100 3.3 3.1 0.4 -1.8 22.6 28.5 4.1 5.6 6.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 6.8 5.5 3.2 -0.4 43.3 45.1 4.5 6.1 7.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 5.4 4.0 1.5 -0.6 41.4 43.9 3.3 4.8 6.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 64 36 0 100 3.8 3.9 0.6 -1.5 26.7 31.8 4.5 6.0 7.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 4.7 4.2 3.8 0.1 51.0 52.1 2.7 4.1 5.5 30 Palic 37000G16 63 37 0 100 2.7 3.2 1.3 -1.1 32.3 36.5 3.3 4.6 5.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 5.3 4.4 3.9 -0.1 47.6 49.5 3.0 4.7 6.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 65 35 0 100 0.4 0.5 -0.6 -1.5 27.0 32.1 1.0 2.3 3.5 29 Sjenica 27900G10 56 44 0 100 3.8 4.6 2.9 -0.8 36.9 40.5 4.2 5.7 7.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 80 20 100 5.4 5.2 4.1 0.3 54.3 54.3 3.2 4.8 6.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 5.4 4.6 4.0 -0.2 47.1 48.7 3.3 4.8 6.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 57 43 0 100 4.0 5.0 2.8 -0.8 38.0 41.2 4.5 6.1 7.5 29 Valjevo 28500G11 54 46 0 100 2.8 3.3 1.6 -0.9 34.6 39.1 3.1 4.5 5.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 69 31 0 100 3.4 3.2 0.0 -1.8 21.5 27.8 4.1 5.3 6.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 54 46 0 100 3.1 3.6 2.3 -0.9 34.3 39.5 3.5 5.0 6.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 52 48 0 100 3.7 4.5 1.2 -0.8 38.0 41.1 4.0 5.6 7.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 61 39 0 100 0.6 0.9 0.6 -1.2 31.0 35.4 1.1 2.4 3.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 75 25 100 5.0 3.8 3.6 -0.4 43.4 46.6 2.8 4.4 5.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------