***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 12.01.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.01.2012.-22.01.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 91 9 0 100 9999.0 -6.0 -5.0 -2.7 13.2 16.6 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 87 13 0 100 -6.4 -6.7 -5.1 -2.5 17.0 20.2 -4.9 -3.3 -1.8 30 Becej 27400G00 87 13 0 100 -3.5 -4.4 -5.2 -2.9 11.6 15.8 -2.3 -1.0 0.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 95 5 0 100 -9.8 -12.1 -8.5 -4.1 6.2 9.8 -7.8 -6.1 -4.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 95 5 0 100 -6.0 -7.7 -7.9 -4.2 6.4 9.8 -4.5 -3.2 -1.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 98 2 0 100 -6.7 -9.7 -12.3 -6.6 2.1 4.6 -5.2 -4.0 -2.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 88 12 0 100 -6.7 -6.9 -5.1 -2.5 17.5 20.2 -5.0 -3.3 -1.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 99 1 0 100 -10.5 -14.7 -11.6 -6.6 1.2 3.4 -8.7 -7.3 -5.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 88 12 0 100 -5.1 -5.7 -6.3 -2.9 14.0 17.5 -3.7 -2.3 -1.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 94 6 0 100 -5.8 -7.7 -9.6 -4.9 6.3 9.4 -4.3 -3.0 -1.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 98 2 0 100 -6.5 -9.1 -8.9 -5.0 3.9 6.8 -4.7 -3.2 -1.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 99 1 0 100 -7.3 -10.6 -10.2 -6.0 2.4 4.8 -5.5 -4.0 -2.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 98 2 0 100 -6.9 -9.9 -10.6 -6.2 3.0 5.8 -5.1 -3.6 -2.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 88 12 0 100 -4.7 -5.9 -6.8 -3.5 9.8 14.7 -3.5 -2.2 -1.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 80 20 0 100 -5.6 -5.2 -5.6 -2.0 24.1 25.8 -4.4 -2.9 -1.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 97 3 0 100 -5.3 -7.1 -9.1 -4.9 5.3 8.6 -3.8 -2.5 -1.3 30 Nis 06700G01 84 16 0 100 -6.4 -6.5 -5.2 -2.3 19.6 22.5 -5.1 -3.5 -2.1 30 Palic 37000G16 95 5 0 100 -8.1 -9.9 -11.2 -5.2 6.8 10.3 -6.4 -4.9 -3.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 84 16 0 100 -5.7 -6.2 -5.0 -2.5 16.3 20.1 -4.4 -3.0 -1.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 96 4 0 100 -12.1 -14.9 -13.2 -5.9 5.5 8.8 -9.9 -8.0 -6.3 29 Sjenica 27900G10 86 14 0 100 -5.4 -6.2 -5.4 -2.7 13.1 17.1 -4.0 -2.6 -1.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 77 23 0 100 -5.9 -5.9 -4.7 -2.0 22.6 25.5 -4.9 -3.4 -2.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 84 16 0 100 -5.5 -6.2 -5.0 -2.5 14.3 19.1 -4.3 -2.9 -1.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 91 9 0 100 -5.8 -7.3 -8.2 -4.2 7.4 11.7 -4.4 -3.2 -2.0 29 Valjevo 28500G11 97 3 0 100 -5.0 -6.8 -7.4 -4.1 5.2 9.0 -3.6 -2.5 -1.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 98 2 0 100 -6.4 -9.9 -11.8 -7.4 1.5 3.5 -4.8 -3.5 -2.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 92 8 0 100 -5.8 -7.1 -6.2 -3.4 9.4 13.2 -4.1 -2.6 -1.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 89 11 0 100 -6.8 -7.5 -7.3 -3.4 13.6 16.4 -5.3 -3.8 -2.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 94 6 0 100 -8.1 -9.9 -12.1 -5.4 7.0 10.6 -6.5 -5.0 -3.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 88 12 0 100 -6.0 -6.5 -5.0 -2.6 15.6 18.9 -4.5 -2.8 -1.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------