***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 10.01.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 28.01.2013.-03.02.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 52 48 0 100 9999.0 2.5 4.2 0.4 53.5 53.0 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 58 42 0 100 1.6 4.0 3.5 -0.1 49.0 50.5 2.2 4.1 6.0 30 Becej 27400G00 59 41 0 100 2.3 5.4 4.5 0.3 53.0 52.8 3.0 5.1 7.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 75 25 100 -0.1 -0.3 2.7 0.6 55.8 54.4 -2.7 -0.9 0.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 5.5 5.5 3.6 0.8 57.1 55.3 2.8 4.7 6.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 4.5 5.1 2.8 1.3 62.3 59.5 2.0 3.8 5.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 54 46 0 100 1.2 3.6 3.3 -0.1 49.0 50.5 1.7 3.7 5.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 -0.9 -0.9 3.1 0.8 57.8 56.2 -3.2 -1.6 0.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 52 48 0 100 3.0 6.1 4.3 0.7 56.5 54.9 3.3 5.4 7.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 51 49 0 100 3.0 5.8 3.6 0.7 56.6 55.2 3.2 5.1 6.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 5.8 6.0 3.7 0.9 58.9 56.7 3.1 5.1 6.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 5.9 6.3 3.6 1.0 60.1 57.8 3.2 5.1 6.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 5.6 6.2 3.3 1.2 62.1 59.2 3.0 4.9 6.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 75 25 100 6.9 6.4 4.2 0.4 53.2 53.0 3.8 6.0 8.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 75 25 100 5.4 5.1 2.6 0.5 54.3 53.6 2.8 4.6 6.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 6.0 6.4 3.4 1.1 60.5 57.9 3.2 5.2 7.1 30 Nis 06700G01 57 43 0 100 1.6 3.6 3.1 -0.4 46.8 48.9 2.1 3.9 5.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 75 25 100 4.7 4.5 3.3 0.5 55.0 54.3 2.5 4.0 5.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 59 41 0 100 1.5 4.3 3.9 0.0 49.9 51.0 2.2 4.3 6.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 -0.4 2.0 1.4 0.4 54.5 54.3 -0.1 1.6 3.2 29 Sjenica 27900G10 53 47 0 100 2.8 5.7 4.5 0.6 55.4 54.1 3.2 5.1 6.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 59 41 0 100 2.0 4.4 3.5 -0.3 47.7 49.4 2.7 4.7 6.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 59 41 0 100 2.0 4.8 4.4 0.1 51.3 51.8 2.7 4.6 6.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 51 49 0 100 3.2 6.1 4.2 0.5 54.3 53.6 3.6 5.6 7.5 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 4.5 4.2 3.0 0.5 54.4 53.5 2.1 3.8 5.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 5.2 5.8 3.1 1.3 63.2 59.9 2.8 4.5 6.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 51 49 0 100 1.8 4.5 3.5 0.4 53.6 53.0 2.1 4.1 6.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 75 25 100 6.3 6.2 3.0 0.7 56.6 55.0 3.5 5.4 7.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 75 25 100 2.6 2.3 2.5 0.5 55.0 54.4 -0.1 1.8 3.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 56 44 0 100 1.4 4.0 3.8 0.0 50.4 51.4 1.9 3.9 5.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------