***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 08.01.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 26.01.2015.-01.02.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 81 19 100 4.4 4.9 4.7 1.0 60.1 58.2 1.7 3.7 5.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 85 15 100 4.3 5.3 4.9 1.4 63.8 61.6 1.9 3.8 5.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 82 18 100 5.6 6.1 4.9 1.0 59.9 58.1 2.8 4.9 6.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 81 19 100 -0.1 0.4 2.6 1.1 61.1 59.2 -2.4 -0.7 0.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 5.5 5.6 3.0 0.8 58.0 56.3 2.8 4.7 6.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 4.7 4.8 2.1 0.8 57.5 55.5 2.4 4.0 5.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 85 15 100 3.9 4.9 4.7 1.4 63.4 61.2 1.4 3.4 5.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 -1.2 -1.4 2.3 0.4 54.6 53.4 -3.1 -1.7 -0.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 6.1 6.2 3.8 0.8 57.4 55.7 3.3 5.3 7.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 5.6 5.5 3.0 0.5 55.2 53.8 3.0 4.9 6.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 5.9 5.9 2.9 0.7 56.9 55.3 3.1 5.1 7.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 5.8 5.7 2.7 0.5 55.6 54.1 3.1 5.1 6.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 5.6 5.4 2.3 0.5 55.3 53.6 3.0 4.9 6.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 6.4 6.6 4.2 0.8 57.9 56.4 3.3 5.6 7.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 40 60 100 6.2 5.9 3.0 1.6 65.1 62.8 2.6 4.4 6.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 6.1 6.1 2.6 0.7 57.0 55.3 3.3 5.3 7.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 85 15 100 3.9 5.0 4.8 1.5 65.0 62.6 1.7 3.5 5.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 4.2 3.8 2.6 0.3 52.6 51.7 2.0 3.6 5.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 85 15 100 4.6 5.6 5.0 1.4 63.3 61.1 1.9 4.0 6.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 2.1 1.6 0.7 0.1 50.7 50.2 0.0 1.5 3.0 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 5.8 6.0 4.3 0.9 58.5 56.8 3.1 5.1 6.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 84 16 100 4.8 6.0 5.1 1.6 65.3 62.8 2.2 4.2 6.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 84 16 100 4.7 5.5 5.1 1.3 61.8 59.7 2.2 4.1 6.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 6.1 6.0 4.0 0.6 55.9 54.5 3.3 5.3 7.2 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 81 19 100 4.3 4.7 3.1 1.0 59.7 57.8 2.0 3.7 5.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 5.0 4.8 2.2 0.5 55.0 53.3 3.0 4.4 5.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 81 19 100 4.8 5.2 3.9 1.0 59.7 57.6 2.1 4.1 6.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 80 20 100 5.9 6.6 2.9 1.3 62.5 60.4 3.2 5.2 7.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 2.2 1.6 1.7 0.1 51.1 50.5 -0.3 1.5 3.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 85 15 100 4.2 5.1 4.9 1.3 62.6 60.5 1.7 3.7 5.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------