***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 07.01.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.01.2016.-24.01.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 72 28 0 100 1.2 0.9 0.7 -2.7 21.4 27.6 2.2 3.9 5.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 71 29 0 100 0.5 -0.1 0.4 -2.9 19.9 27.1 1.5 3.2 4.8 30 Becej 27400G00 68 32 0 100 1.6 1.2 0.8 -2.7 21.9 28.4 2.6 4.4 6.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 71 29 0 100 -3.9 -4.5 -1.5 -2.7 20.7 26.7 -2.6 -0.4 1.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 68 32 0 100 1.8 1.5 -0.7 -2.6 22.5 28.7 2.7 4.4 6.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 59 41 0 100 1.8 1.7 -1.0 -2.2 26.8 32.0 2.4 4.1 5.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 72 28 0 100 0.1 -0.4 0.4 -2.8 19.8 26.8 1.2 2.9 4.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 58 42 0 100 -2.9 -3.3 -0.8 -2.4 24.9 30.5 -2.4 -0.7 0.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 66 34 0 100 2.3 2.0 0.1 -2.6 23.5 29.4 3.2 5.1 6.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 60 40 0 100 2.0 1.6 -0.3 -2.5 24.6 30.3 2.6 4.4 6.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 59 41 0 100 2.1 1.7 -0.5 -2.3 24.6 30.7 2.7 4.5 6.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 58 42 0 100 2.3 2.0 -0.4 -2.2 25.7 31.5 2.9 4.8 6.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 61 39 0 100 1.9 1.8 -0.6 -2.2 26.6 32.3 2.6 4.4 6.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 64 36 0 100 2.0 1.3 0.3 -2.8 21.8 28.4 2.9 5.0 6.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 70 30 0 100 0.2 -0.4 -1.3 -2.7 20.3 25.9 1.4 3.5 5.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 60 40 0 100 2.5 2.2 -0.7 -2.3 25.2 31.2 3.2 5.1 6.8 30 Nis 06700G01 72 28 0 100 0.2 -0.3 0.3 -2.9 20.0 26.9 1.2 2.8 4.3 30 Palic 37000G16 61 39 0 100 1.1 0.8 -0.5 -2.6 24.3 30.1 1.6 3.1 4.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 70 30 0 100 0.7 0.1 0.6 -2.8 20.4 27.6 1.7 3.6 5.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 59 41 0 100 -0.2 -0.7 -1.9 -2.6 24.2 29.6 0.4 2.3 4.0 29 Sjenica 27900G10 69 31 0 100 1.9 1.6 0.5 -2.6 22.9 28.8 2.8 4.6 6.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 71 29 0 100 0.6 0.2 0.4 -2.9 21.0 27.6 1.7 3.5 5.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 68 32 0 100 0.8 0.3 0.8 -2.8 21.0 28.1 1.8 3.5 5.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 64 36 0 100 2.2 1.7 0.4 -2.7 23.0 29.2 3.0 5.0 6.8 29 Valjevo 28500G11 71 29 0 100 0.9 0.5 -0.7 -2.7 20.8 26.8 1.9 3.4 4.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 58 42 0 100 2.3 2.2 -0.5 -2.0 27.5 32.7 2.8 4.3 5.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 71 29 0 100 1.3 0.9 0.1 -2.7 21.0 27.1 2.4 4.1 5.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 67 33 0 100 0.8 0.2 -1.2 -2.7 21.8 27.7 2.0 4.2 6.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 61 39 0 100 -0.2 -0.7 -1.1 -2.6 23.9 29.7 0.5 2.4 4.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 71 29 0 100 0.4 0.0 0.6 -2.8 20.2 27.2 1.5 3.2 4.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------