***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 07.01.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.01.2016.-24.01.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 68 32 0 100 -3.9 -4.1 -4.9 -2.6 22.0 28.8 -3.2 -1.9 -0.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 74 26 0 100 -5.4 -5.9 -5.3 -2.9 18.4 26.0 -4.4 -3.0 -1.7 30 Becej 27400G00 71 29 0 100 -3.1 -3.5 -5.2 -2.7 20.1 28.0 -2.3 -0.9 0.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 73 27 0 100 -9.0 -9.4 -8.9 -3.1 20.6 25.8 -7.9 -6.2 -4.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 72 28 0 100 -4.7 -5.1 -8.6 -3.2 19.8 26.7 -4.0 -2.7 -1.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 63 37 0 100 -5.5 -5.5 -9.3 -2.4 26.5 31.6 -4.9 -3.7 -2.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 72 28 0 100 -5.5 -6.0 -5.2 -2.9 19.1 26.8 -4.5 -3.1 -1.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 66 34 0 100 -9.6 -9.6 -9.0 -2.8 25.0 30.8 -8.8 -7.3 -5.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 71 29 0 100 -4.1 -4.6 -7.5 -3.2 19.2 27.2 -3.3 -2.0 -0.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 69 31 0 100 -4.5 -4.7 -8.5 -2.9 23.0 29.6 -3.8 -2.6 -1.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 66 34 0 100 -4.7 -5.1 -8.7 -3.0 22.3 29.5 -4.1 -2.8 -1.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 63 37 0 100 -5.2 -5.3 -8.3 -2.6 25.9 32.5 -4.7 -3.4 -2.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 62 38 0 100 -4.9 -4.9 -8.3 -2.3 27.1 33.5 -4.4 -3.1 -1.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 78 22 0 100 -4.0 -4.3 -7.6 -3.3 18.0 25.5 -3.1 -1.9 -0.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 75 25 0 100 -5.3 -5.5 -8.0 -2.9 21.0 25.9 -4.3 -2.9 -1.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 62 38 0 100 -3.9 -4.2 -9.0 -2.8 24.1 31.0 -3.4 -2.2 -1.0 30 Nis 06700G01 73 27 0 100 -5.5 -5.9 -5.4 -3.1 19.0 26.4 -4.6 -3.3 -2.0 30 Palic 37000G16 68 32 0 100 -6.2 -6.3 -8.9 -2.9 23.6 29.7 -5.5 -4.3 -3.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 75 25 0 100 -5.2 -5.7 -5.3 -2.9 17.7 25.8 -4.2 -2.9 -1.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 59 41 0 100 -9.6 -9.6 -10.1 -2.6 27.7 32.3 -9.0 -7.2 -5.4 29 Sjenica 27900G10 69 31 0 100 -4.3 -4.8 -6.1 -2.9 20.1 27.8 -3.6 -2.2 -1.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 74 26 0 100 -5.3 -5.8 -5.5 -3.2 18.6 25.5 -4.4 -3.1 -1.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 74 26 0 100 -4.7 -5.3 -5.9 -3.1 16.6 25.3 -3.9 -2.7 -1.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 73 27 0 100 -4.8 -5.1 -7.5 -3.1 19.4 27.2 -4.0 -2.8 -1.7 29 Valjevo 28500G11 66 34 0 100 -4.0 -4.3 -7.0 -2.6 22.6 28.0 -3.5 -2.3 -1.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 66 34 0 100 -4.9 -4.7 -7.8 -2.2 28.1 34.3 -4.3 -3.1 -1.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 66 34 0 100 -4.3 -4.6 -5.9 -2.7 22.6 29.0 -3.6 -2.2 -0.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 73 27 0 100 -6.1 -6.4 -8.8 -3.1 20.5 26.2 -5.2 -3.7 -2.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 67 33 0 100 -7.0 -7.2 -9.5 -3.0 24.0 29.7 -6.2 -4.7 -3.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 73 27 0 100 -5.0 -5.4 -5.1 -2.8 19.3 26.9 -4.0 -2.6 -1.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------