***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.01.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.01.2012.-15.01.2012. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 32 68 100 9999.0 15.7 11.4 167.9 81.8 72.1 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 36 64 100 8.6 11.3 10.0 154.5 78.9 67.0 2.0 4.1 7.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 27 73 100 9.0 12.4 11.1 167.8 81.9 74.0 2.1 4.2 7.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 32 68 100 8.0 8.6 10.4 134.5 73.9 69.3 2.3 4.2 6.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 27 73 100 9.7 11.9 12.3 155.8 78.8 74.4 2.3 4.6 7.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 44 56 100 6.7 7.2 9.9 123.1 71.3 66.8 1.8 3.6 6.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 34 66 100 7.8 10.4 10.4 158.1 79.3 67.7 1.7 3.7 6.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 35 65 100 11.3 13.3 13.1 144.6 75.9 71.9 3.0 5.7 9.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 21 79 100 7.5 10.1 13.8 175.1 82.8 77.8 1.8 3.5 5.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 21 79 100 10.7 14.3 14.7 170.5 81.9 77.7 2.3 4.6 8.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 25 75 100 8.4 9.8 12.2 150.2 77.5 73.9 1.8 3.7 6.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 42 58 100 7.2 8.1 10.9 129.5 72.6 68.8 1.7 3.6 6.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 25 75 100 8.2 9.2 12.7 146.3 76.6 73.5 1.8 3.6 6.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 24 76 100 12.1 17.6 14.2 181.4 84.3 77.4 3.0 5.8 9.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 82 18 100 5.3 4.1 4.8 62.6 49.0 44.3 2.3 4.2 7.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 31 69 100 7.8 8.7 11.2 139.3 75.2 71.6 1.9 3.8 6.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 36 64 100 7.8 9.2 9.7 141.5 75.6 64.1 2.1 4.1 6.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 20 80 100 10.4 14.4 15.7 176.7 83.3 78.3 2.4 4.8 8.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 32 68 100 9.0 11.8 10.3 156.6 79.5 69.1 2.1 4.3 7.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 34 66 100 11.6 14.0 15.6 146.9 76.3 71.8 2.5 5.3 9.6 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 29 71 100 8.3 11.5 12.0 167.7 81.5 75.0 1.9 3.8 6.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 40 60 100 8.1 9.6 10.1 138.1 74.9 65.1 2.1 4.2 7.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 27 73 100 8.2 11.4 11.3 165.4 81.4 73.7 1.5 3.4 6.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 22 78 100 9.2 13.1 13.7 176.4 83.2 77.5 1.9 3.9 7.0 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 24 76 100 8.9 12.3 13.3 173.0 82.2 75.2 1.9 3.9 6.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 87 13 100 3.8 5.2 9.8 104.4 65.9 62.6 1.7 3.2 5.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 26 74 100 8.8 13.0 13.3 180.2 83.7 74.7 1.9 3.9 6.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 83 17 100 5.1 6.3 7.9 102.3 63.7 59.5 2.4 4.2 6.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 21 79 100 15.3 21.4 16.5 175.7 83.1 78.0 3.3 6.7 11.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 33 67 100 8.0 11.1 10.4 162.5 80.5 69.7 1.8 3.8 6.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------