***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.01.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.01.2018.-04.02.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 24.5 19.9 35.2 86.8 49.2 44.5 13.3 20.2 28.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 25.5 22.9 32.5 91.8 53.2 47.3 14.3 21.4 29.7 30 Becej 27400G00 57 43 0 100 18.3 27.4 34.7 87.5 48.9 44.1 19.1 28.0 38.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 38.6 43.4 48.3 112.1 65.1 56.7 24.3 33.5 44.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 54 46 0 100 22.1 31.4 40.7 91.1 49.8 46.1 22.7 31.6 42.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 31.3 30.1 40.8 99.3 56.1 51.6 18.1 26.5 36.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 23.9 22.0 32.6 93.4 54.3 48.4 13.4 20.0 27.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 51 49 0 100 31.4 49.5 47.0 100.0 56.6 51.4 31.2 43.9 58.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 55 45 0 100 16.2 23.3 41.1 89.6 48.6 45.4 16.5 23.9 32.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 52 48 0 100 21.1 31.2 45.5 94.4 52.0 48.4 21.2 29.9 40.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 51 49 0 100 18.1 27.2 40.8 93.7 51.8 48.0 17.8 26.2 36.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 51 49 0 100 15.2 26.8 41.2 97.3 54.7 50.2 14.6 23.7 35.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 75 25 100 33.6 28.2 42.1 91.9 50.0 47.3 19.3 28.2 38.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 51 49 0 100 29.2 38.4 44.5 88.9 48.2 44.6 29.3 39.5 51.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 80 20 100 30.8 45.3 49.2 128.6 73.3 62.0 16.1 25.8 37.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 51 49 0 100 17.3 26.2 40.3 94.1 52.0 48.6 17.1 25.1 34.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 23.8 23.4 33.9 99.0 57.9 52.0 13.0 19.7 27.8 30 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 19.8 30.0 48.2 95.0 52.5 49.0 19.5 28.6 39.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 51 49 0 100 17.2 25.3 32.9 90.1 51.7 46.0 17.2 24.4 32.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 20.1 36.8 63.4 104.7 60.0 53.6 19.7 29.8 41.8 29 Sjenica 27900G10 52 48 0 100 19.0 25.9 38.1 87.5 48.1 44.7 19.2 26.7 35.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 75 25 100 27.8 26.4 35.0 96.5 56.3 50.2 15.5 23.1 32.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 53 47 0 100 16.2 23.2 34.7 88.2 49.6 44.6 16.3 23.4 31.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 51 49 0 100 25.4 33.5 41.8 89.3 48.6 45.3 25.4 34.2 44.0 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 33.2 28.4 41.8 89.0 49.8 45.5 20.0 28.6 38.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 27.3 26.6 42.1 100.3 57.4 51.6 14.7 22.5 32.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 28.0 23.0 37.8 86.9 49.0 44.9 15.8 23.6 32.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 27.5 35.0 47.0 119.9 68.8 59.7 14.1 22.5 32.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 75 25 100 53.2 50.1 53.4 98.6 55.4 51.1 32.6 45.5 60.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 75 25 100 25.5 22.0 32.8 90.0 51.8 45.8 14.4 21.3 29.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------