***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.01.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 21.01.2019.-27.01.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 4.5 3.7 4.3 0.0 49.7 50.7 1.9 3.8 5.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 4.0 3.3 4.3 -0.1 49.3 50.3 1.6 3.3 5.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 5.3 4.6 5.0 0.1 51.3 51.9 2.4 4.5 6.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 81 19 100 0.3 -0.3 1.8 0.1 51.3 51.6 -2.7 -0.4 1.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 81 19 100 5.2 4.5 2.8 -0.1 49.4 50.3 2.7 4.6 6.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 81 19 100 4.6 4.1 2.2 0.1 51.0 51.9 2.3 4.0 5.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 3.6 2.7 4.1 -0.2 48.0 49.3 1.1 2.9 4.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 80 20 100 -0.7 -1.5 2.5 -0.1 48.9 50.2 -3.1 -1.4 0.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 5.8 5.1 3.7 0.0 49.7 50.5 3.1 5.1 7.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 81 19 100 5.1 4.3 3.1 -0.1 48.9 50.1 2.6 4.5 6.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 5.4 4.6 2.8 -0.1 49.0 50.0 2.7 4.7 6.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 80 20 100 5.4 4.6 2.7 -0.1 48.7 49.8 2.7 4.7 6.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 81 19 100 5.3 4.4 2.1 -0.3 47.3 48.8 2.9 4.7 6.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 5.8 4.9 4.4 0.0 49.6 50.7 2.7 5.0 7.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 4.3 4.4 3.1 0.7 56.6 55.4 1.3 3.5 5.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 80 20 100 6.0 5.2 2.5 -0.1 49.1 50.2 3.3 5.3 7.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 3.5 2.7 4.3 -0.1 48.6 49.4 1.2 2.8 4.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 81 19 100 3.5 2.9 3.2 -0.2 48.2 49.8 1.6 3.1 4.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 80 20 100 4.3 3.7 4.7 0.0 50.4 51.1 1.6 3.6 5.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 2.5 1.6 1.4 -0.2 48.4 50.3 -0.2 1.8 3.7 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 5.4 4.9 4.4 0.1 51.3 51.8 2.8 4.7 6.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 80 20 100 4.3 3.5 4.5 -0.1 48.8 49.6 1.8 3.6 5.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 4.1 3.6 5.2 0.2 51.6 52.1 1.7 3.5 5.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 81 19 100 5.6 4.8 4.2 -0.1 49.3 50.5 2.8 4.9 6.8 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 4.1 3.3 2.7 -0.1 49.0 49.9 1.7 3.4 5.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 4.9 3.9 1.8 -0.4 46.0 47.9 2.8 4.3 5.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 4.8 4.0 3.7 -0.2 48.5 49.7 2.2 4.1 5.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 81 19 100 5.2 5.0 2.6 0.5 54.6 54.2 2.0 4.4 6.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 81 19 100 2.5 1.6 2.6 -0.2 47.8 49.7 -0.2 1.9 3.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 3.8 3.1 4.3 0.0 49.6 50.6 1.3 3.1 4.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------