***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.01.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 07.01.2019.-13.01.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 69 31 0 100 -4.9 -4.7 -4.7 -2.7 26.2 27.6 -3.8 -1.9 0.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 64 36 0 100 -6.7 -6.7 -4.6 -2.5 26.3 28.2 -5.7 -3.4 -1.3 30 Becej 27400G00 76 24 0 100 -4.7 -4.7 -4.8 -3.0 22.6 24.8 -3.2 -1.1 0.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 76 24 0 100 -9.4 -9.0 -6.9 -2.6 25.3 26.4 -7.8 -5.6 -3.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 78 22 0 100 -7.3 -7.0 -6.6 -3.1 23.6 25.0 -5.7 -3.7 -1.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 56 44 0 100 -7.7 -7.5 -8.6 -2.3 30.1 31.3 -7.1 -5.0 -3.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 72 28 0 100 -6.7 -6.8 -4.9 -2.9 23.2 25.2 -5.3 -3.1 -1.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 75 25 0 100 -10.2 -10.0 -8.6 -2.9 24.3 26.0 -9.0 -7.3 -5.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 74 26 0 100 -6.7 -6.3 -6.4 -2.7 25.7 27.2 -5.2 -3.0 -0.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 79 21 0 100 -7.3 -7.2 -8.0 -3.1 22.6 24.3 -5.7 -3.7 -1.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 63 37 0 100 -7.0 -6.8 -6.9 -2.5 28.2 29.6 -6.1 -4.0 -2.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 63 37 0 100 -7.9 -7.6 -7.6 -2.6 28.3 29.7 -7.0 -4.9 -3.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 56 44 0 100 -7.6 -7.1 -7.3 -2.1 32.3 33.5 -7.0 -4.7 -2.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 64 36 0 100 -5.4 -5.4 -6.1 -2.7 26.2 28.4 -4.5 -2.5 -0.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 89 11 100 -3.1 -4.2 -4.0 -0.6 43.4 43.7 -5.3 -3.5 -1.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 57 43 0 100 -5.7 -5.5 -7.3 -2.3 30.6 31.7 -5.2 -3.2 -1.4 30 Nis 06700G01 62 38 0 100 -6.6 -6.7 -4.5 -2.5 26.4 28.2 -5.7 -3.5 -1.5 30 Palic 37000G16 83 17 0 100 -9.8 -9.7 -8.2 -3.3 21.0 22.9 -7.9 -5.7 -3.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 61 39 0 100 -6.1 -6.0 -4.4 -2.3 27.6 29.4 -5.2 -3.1 -1.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 80 20 0 100 -13.5 -13.1 -9.4 -3.2 23.4 24.9 -11.4 -8.8 -6.4 29 Sjenica 27900G10 72 28 0 100 -6.5 -6.4 -5.2 -2.8 24.8 26.4 -5.2 -3.1 -1.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 54 46 0 100 -6.2 -6.1 -3.9 -2.0 30.1 31.6 -5.7 -3.6 -1.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 56 44 0 100 -5.8 -5.9 -4.5 -2.2 28.2 30.0 -5.2 -3.2 -1.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 74 26 0 100 -6.3 -6.2 -6.3 -2.9 23.8 26.0 -5.0 -3.1 -1.4 29 Valjevo 28500G11 75 25 0 100 -6.9 -6.6 -5.4 -2.8 25.0 26.2 -5.4 -3.3 -1.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 67 33 0 100 -7.3 -7.3 -8.2 -3.0 24.9 26.8 -6.2 -4.2 -2.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 67 33 0 100 -6.7 -6.3 -5.0 -2.6 27.5 28.6 -5.3 -2.8 -0.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 75 25 100 -3.7 -6.6 -6.1 -1.9 33.4 34.2 -6.6 -4.6 -2.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 74 26 0 100 -9.0 -8.8 -9.0 -3.0 24.3 26.1 -7.5 -5.3 -3.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 70 30 0 100 -6.7 -6.7 -4.7 -2.7 24.4 26.4 -5.3 -3.0 -0.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------