***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.01.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 28.01.2013.-03.02.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 57 43 0 100 9999.0 2.2 3.9 -0.6 43.4 45.5 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 58 42 0 100 1.6 3.2 3.6 -0.7 41.8 44.7 2.2 4.1 6.0 30 Becej 27400G00 56 44 0 100 2.5 4.4 4.3 -0.5 44.2 46.1 3.0 5.1 7.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 53 47 0 100 -3.1 -1.1 2.4 -0.2 47.7 48.5 -2.7 -0.9 0.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 59 41 0 100 2.2 4.4 3.0 -0.3 47.0 47.8 2.8 4.7 6.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 64 36 0 100 1.2 3.6 2.0 -0.2 47.9 48.9 2.0 3.8 5.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 59 41 0 100 1.0 2.7 3.4 -0.8 41.4 44.3 1.7 3.7 5.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 62 38 0 100 -3.9 -1.9 2.5 -0.3 46.1 47.3 -3.2 -1.6 0.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 59 41 0 100 2.7 4.9 3.8 -0.4 46.2 47.2 3.3 5.4 7.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 60 40 0 100 2.6 4.7 3.1 -0.4 45.8 46.9 3.2 5.1 6.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 60 40 0 100 2.5 4.8 3.1 -0.2 47.6 48.2 3.1 5.1 6.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 63 37 0 100 2.4 4.9 2.9 -0.2 47.5 48.3 3.2 5.1 6.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 63 37 0 100 2.2 4.6 2.4 -0.2 47.3 48.4 3.0 4.9 6.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 55 45 0 100 3.2 5.3 3.9 -0.5 44.3 45.8 3.8 6.0 8.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 52 48 0 100 2.5 4.6 2.4 -0.1 49.2 49.8 2.8 4.6 6.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 60 40 0 100 2.5 5.0 2.7 -0.2 48.0 48.6 3.2 5.2 7.1 30 Nis 06700G01 59 41 0 100 1.5 3.0 3.3 -0.7 41.6 44.4 2.1 3.9 5.6 30 Palic 37000G16 59 41 0 100 2.0 3.5 2.8 -0.5 44.3 45.8 2.5 4.0 5.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 59 41 0 100 1.5 3.4 3.9 -0.7 42.5 45.1 2.2 4.3 6.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 61 39 0 100 -0.7 0.9 0.9 -0.6 43.0 45.4 -0.1 1.6 3.2 29 Sjenica 27900G10 56 44 0 100 2.6 4.6 4.0 -0.4 45.5 46.9 3.2 5.1 6.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 61 39 0 100 1.9 3.8 3.8 -0.7 42.5 45.1 2.7 4.7 6.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 59 41 0 100 2.0 3.9 4.3 -0.6 43.4 45.6 2.7 4.6 6.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 56 44 0 100 3.0 5.0 3.9 -0.5 44.7 46.1 3.6 5.6 7.5 29 Valjevo 28500G11 53 47 0 100 1.7 3.2 2.6 -0.5 43.8 45.6 2.1 3.8 5.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 60 40 0 100 2.2 4.3 2.2 -0.2 47.2 48.7 2.8 4.5 6.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 54 46 0 100 1.7 3.3 3.1 -0.7 42.5 44.7 2.1 4.1 6.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 53 47 0 100 3.1 5.4 2.6 -0.1 49.4 49.8 3.5 5.4 7.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 59 41 0 100 -0.7 1.1 2.0 -0.6 43.6 45.6 -0.1 1.8 3.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 58 42 0 100 1.3 3.1 3.8 -0.7 42.3 45.1 1.9 3.9 5.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------