***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.01.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 28.01.2013.-03.02.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 59 41 0 100 9999.0 -4.4 -2.4 -0.4 44.7 47.9 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 63 37 0 100 -6.5 -4.6 -2.9 -0.7 41.8 46.4 -5.7 -3.7 -1.9 30 Becej 27400G00 61 39 0 100 -3.4 -1.5 -2.5 -0.3 45.8 49.1 -2.8 -1.1 0.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 56 44 0 100 -9.1 -6.7 -4.7 0.2 52.4 53.2 -8.6 -6.9 -5.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 56 44 0 100 -5.5 -3.3 -4.1 0.2 51.7 52.5 -5.1 -3.5 -2.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 55 45 0 100 -6.6 -4.4 -5.7 0.3 53.1 54.0 -6.2 -4.7 -3.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 62 38 0 100 -6.0 -4.3 -3.0 -0.7 41.6 46.0 -5.3 -3.4 -1.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 54 46 0 100 -10.5 -8.3 -5.0 0.2 52.0 52.4 -10.1 -8.5 -6.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 56 44 0 100 -4.7 -2.6 -3.3 0.0 49.9 51.1 -4.2 -2.6 -1.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 55 45 0 100 -4.9 -3.0 -4.4 0.1 51.0 51.6 -4.5 -3.0 -1.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 57 43 0 100 -5.5 -3.2 -4.3 0.2 52.0 52.7 -5.0 -3.4 -1.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 56 44 0 100 -5.9 -3.8 -4.5 0.3 52.7 53.1 -5.5 -4.0 -2.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 55 45 0 100 -5.5 -3.3 -4.9 0.2 52.7 53.3 -5.1 -3.6 -2.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 58 42 0 100 -4.3 -2.7 -3.6 -0.4 45.6 47.9 -3.8 -2.3 -0.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 55 45 0 100 -4.8 -2.6 -4.5 0.2 52.0 53.2 -4.4 -2.8 -1.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 57 43 0 100 -4.5 -2.4 -4.7 0.3 53.1 53.7 -4.1 -2.7 -1.3 30 Nis 06700G01 63 37 0 100 -6.1 -4.4 -3.0 -0.8 41.5 46.0 -5.3 -3.5 -1.8 30 Palic 37000G16 55 45 0 100 -7.0 -5.0 -4.9 0.1 50.7 51.0 -6.6 -5.0 -3.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 64 36 0 100 -6.0 -4.1 -2.8 -0.6 42.5 47.1 -5.2 -3.3 -1.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 53 47 0 100 -10.4 -8.2 -6.1 0.2 52.0 52.1 -10.1 -8.4 -6.7 29 Sjenica 27900G10 57 43 0 100 -5.2 -3.2 -2.7 -0.2 48.1 50.1 -4.7 -3.0 -1.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 64 36 0 100 -6.3 -4.5 -2.7 -0.7 42.0 46.5 -5.5 -3.6 -1.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 63 37 0 100 -5.7 -3.9 -2.8 -0.5 43.7 47.8 -5.0 -3.3 -1.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 57 43 0 100 -5.3 -3.5 -3.6 -0.1 48.2 49.8 -4.9 -3.3 -1.9 29 Valjevo 28500G11 56 44 0 100 -5.6 -3.7 -4.0 -0.2 47.2 49.4 -5.1 -3.4 -1.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 57 43 0 100 -5.3 -3.4 -4.7 0.3 53.2 53.8 -4.9 -3.6 -2.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 58 42 0 100 -5.9 -3.9 -3.3 -0.5 44.5 47.5 -5.3 -3.3 -1.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 55 45 0 100 -6.1 -3.8 -4.4 0.4 53.9 54.4 -5.8 -4.2 -2.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 53 47 0 100 -7.9 -5.7 -5.4 0.1 51.1 51.1 -7.6 -5.8 -4.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 63 37 0 100 -5.8 -4.0 -2.8 -0.6 42.8 47.1 -5.1 -3.2 -1.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------