***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 02.01.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 13.01.2020.-19.01.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 81 19 100 4.5 4.0 4.4 0.1 50.7 50.8 2.4 4.0 5.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 83 17 100 3.5 3.2 4.7 0.2 52.7 52.3 1.2 3.0 4.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 80 20 100 5.0 4.1 4.6 -0.2 47.6 48.4 2.5 4.4 6.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 0.9 0.5 1.8 0.4 54.2 52.6 -2.1 0.0 2.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 4.9 3.9 2.7 -0.2 47.4 48.3 2.4 4.1 5.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 56 44 0 100 2.2 3.5 1.5 -0.6 43.1 45.4 2.6 4.2 5.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 83 17 100 3.2 2.9 4.5 0.2 52.5 52.2 0.7 2.6 4.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 54 46 0 100 -2.1 -1.2 1.7 -1.1 38.7 42.7 -1.7 -0.1 1.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 5.8 4.7 3.6 -0.2 47.3 48.3 2.9 5.0 6.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 1.7 2.9 2.3 -1.0 39.3 42.8 2.1 4.1 5.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 5.1 3.7 2.8 -0.5 44.5 46.4 2.4 4.3 6.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 51 49 0 100 2.8 4.1 2.3 -0.7 42.3 45.2 3.1 4.9 6.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 58 42 0 100 1.8 3.1 2.2 -0.9 40.2 43.2 2.3 4.1 5.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 5.6 3.9 4.0 -0.6 43.9 45.6 2.4 4.7 6.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 4.7 5.2 3.7 1.0 60.7 58.0 1.7 3.9 5.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 54 46 0 100 2.6 4.3 2.3 -0.4 45.3 46.8 3.0 4.8 6.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 83 17 100 3.2 3.0 4.5 0.3 53.6 52.9 0.9 2.6 4.3 30 Palic 37000G16 56 44 0 100 0.4 1.2 2.0 -1.3 36.7 41.2 0.9 2.4 3.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 82 18 100 3.9 3.5 4.7 0.1 51.3 51.2 1.5 3.3 5.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 61 39 0 100 -0.9 0.0 0.6 -1.3 36.1 41.9 -0.3 1.3 2.9 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 5.2 4.1 4.2 -0.3 46.6 47.6 2.6 4.5 6.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 84 16 100 3.7 3.5 4.7 0.3 52.9 52.3 1.3 3.2 5.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 81 19 100 3.9 3.1 4.7 -0.1 48.7 49.1 1.4 3.3 5.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 6.1 4.0 3.6 -0.9 40.7 43.4 3.0 5.2 7.2 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 4.1 3.4 3.2 0.0 49.5 49.6 1.9 3.5 5.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 54 46 0 100 2.2 3.4 1.6 -0.7 41.4 44.8 2.6 4.2 5.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 4.7 4.0 3.9 -0.1 49.3 49.6 2.3 4.1 5.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 5.4 5.1 2.6 0.5 54.9 53.3 2.1 4.4 6.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 55 45 0 100 -0.1 0.6 1.4 -1.4 35.6 40.8 0.4 2.2 3.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 82 18 100 3.5 3.1 4.6 0.2 51.9 51.8 1.2 3.0 4.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------