***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 01.01.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 12.01.2015.-18.01.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 83 17 100 4.0 5.2 10.5 103.2 64.4 55.9 1.5 3.1 5.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 84 16 100 4.1 5.8 10.7 110.1 66.9 56.5 1.7 3.3 5.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 83 17 100 4.8 6.9 11.2 110.2 66.9 59.1 1.7 3.7 6.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 6.6 7.8 11.8 105.8 64.5 55.4 2.8 5.1 8.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 83 17 100 5.6 8.5 12.7 117.4 68.8 59.9 2.1 4.3 7.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 4.3 5.2 12.0 106.1 64.7 56.3 1.6 3.2 5.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 81 19 100 3.7 4.9 10.6 110.7 67.0 56.6 1.5 2.9 4.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 80 20 100 9.7 13.4 13.6 117.5 68.6 60.0 4.2 7.7 12.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 86 14 100 4.0 6.1 13.5 120.8 69.8 61.8 1.8 3.4 5.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 82 18 100 6.2 9.2 14.3 122.5 70.3 61.9 2.9 5.0 8.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 5.4 7.5 12.3 118.7 69.0 59.4 2.3 4.2 6.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 80 20 100 4.2 5.6 11.7 113.9 67.2 58.4 1.8 3.3 5.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 5.1 6.6 11.7 111.9 66.7 58.1 2.1 3.9 6.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 39 61 100 10.5 11.1 14.8 126.7 71.7 64.6 3.2 5.8 9.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 56 44 0 100 1.8 4.2 10.0 86.5 58.0 48.5 1.6 3.2 5.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 5.5 7.2 11.5 112.7 67.0 57.7 2.1 4.1 6.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 82 18 100 3.6 5.0 10.8 113.1 67.8 57.4 1.5 2.9 4.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 82 18 100 6.3 9.3 15.6 123.2 70.5 63.5 2.9 5.1 8.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 85 15 100 4.2 6.4 11.0 112.9 67.8 58.3 1.5 3.3 6.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 83 17 100 6.0 8.1 16.7 112.8 67.3 60.9 2.8 5.0 7.7 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 85 15 100 5.0 7.0 12.1 113.7 67.6 59.7 2.3 4.2 6.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 83 17 100 4.6 6.9 11.6 117.2 69.3 59.8 1.9 3.6 6.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 87 13 100 3.9 6.4 11.9 119.5 69.8 61.7 1.5 3.2 5.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 42 58 100 8.1 8.6 14.2 124.8 71.1 64.0 3.0 5.0 7.5 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 82 18 100 4.6 6.3 12.4 107.6 65.8 57.3 1.5 3.4 6.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 3.5 4.2 11.3 108.3 65.5 57.1 1.6 2.8 4.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 82 18 100 4.4 5.8 11.8 107.0 65.7 56.6 1.6 3.3 5.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 52 48 0 100 2.1 5.3 10.8 98.6 61.8 52.3 1.9 3.6 6.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 83 17 100 9.9 14.2 16.3 119.9 69.5 62.8 4.8 8.2 12.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 84 16 100 3.3 4.8 10.5 107.1 66.0 56.3 1.1 2.5 4.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------