***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 31.12.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.01.2021.-31.01.2021. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 20 80 100 38.3 49.1 68.7 167.3 90.3 83.2 19.3 31.6 36.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 20 80 100 35.2 46.8 60.4 163.3 86.0 80.6 20.6 28.5 33.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 19 81 100 51.7 59.5 62.3 150.4 83.3 77.8 28.0 39.2 50.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 10 90 100 54.3 64.2 76.5 167.7 89.3 83.2 34.6 41.6 50.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 17 83 100 52.1 62.3 70.2 152.5 86.4 79.1 27.9 42.2 48.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 20 80 100 42.2 68.9 66.0 156.4 86.4 79.7 17.6 32.0 39.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 19 81 100 34.9 46.7 62.9 174.2 88.6 83.2 21.3 26.5 33.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 35 65 100 68.1 78.2 68.3 138.9 81.3 71.6 33.2 57.2 65.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 26 74 100 41.4 52.4 68.2 145.0 83.9 76.3 21.9 28.5 42.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 33 67 100 51.0 65.9 67.9 136.4 79.9 71.7 24.2 33.0 45.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 28 72 100 46.0 57.1 66.2 146.7 84.2 75.4 18.1 31.4 42.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 33 67 100 46.6 61.8 63.2 144.4 83.3 73.6 20.0 29.3 42.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 29 71 100 52.5 64.1 68.4 149.5 85.9 76.5 20.2 27.9 46.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 35 65 100 64.1 67.8 67.1 129.4 75.0 70.4 37.3 51.4 59.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 12 88 100 50.6 64.0 72.9 172.9 87.5 81.2 19.1 33.6 44.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 26 74 100 46.4 58.4 67.0 153.3 87.3 78.0 16.6 31.1 47.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 24 76 100 37.4 53.9 60.5 169.0 86.7 81.4 18.1 24.4 30.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 40 60 100 47.2 56.3 67.8 130.3 76.3 69.4 21.4 32.0 45.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 20 80 100 40.0 43.7 58.8 154.0 83.3 78.1 27.8 35.1 40.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 37 63 100 44.9 53.3 86.3 136.8 78.8 70.7 22.1 31.3 45.6 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 21 79 100 46.8 58.9 67.9 151.2 84.3 79.3 27.0 33.9 46.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 28 72 100 41.6 50.9 58.2 153.2 80.3 77.2 19.3 31.1 34.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 20 80 100 42.6 46.0 58.8 143.6 80.2 75.4 20.9 31.2 41.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 37 63 100 50.4 56.0 63.7 131.1 76.3 70.5 31.1 40.2 51.5 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 13 87 100 51.8 67.5 80.0 171.0 91.0 85.4 29.1 36.4 44.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 22 78 100 39.5 58.6 67.3 154.0 86.9 77.9 15.1 22.4 35.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 14 86 100 41.3 52.7 74.7 172.5 92.7 85.0 24.8 33.5 37.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 15 85 100 47.1 58.3 69.0 163.5 87.6 80.6 15.7 24.6 43.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 41 59 100 74.9 91.2 71.5 129.0 76.0 68.4 39.4 50.7 63.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 18 82 100 40.8 46.1 62.0 163.7 86.3 81.1 22.4 31.8 39.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------