***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 31.12.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.01.2021.-31.01.2021. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 40 60 100 11.5 14.6 14.8 138.1 72.7 64.6 1.2 6.2 13.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 82 18 100 8.0 10.5 12.3 126.6 69.1 60.3 1.0 6.7 10.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 41 59 100 17.1 19.8 14.1 131.8 72.1 63.3 2.9 7.0 13.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 33 67 100 15.7 17.2 16.9 145.8 74.8 65.3 3.9 9.5 12.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 34 66 100 15.9 16.4 16.6 142.9 74.0 65.1 4.7 9.9 14.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 36 64 100 10.8 13.3 16.0 153.4 79.5 67.0 3.6 7.2 11.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 81 19 100 7.2 11.4 12.4 131.3 71.4 61.1 1.5 5.8 10.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 81 19 100 13.7 21.1 15.6 128.7 72.3 61.7 6.4 11.0 18.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 33 67 100 14.3 17.3 17.0 140.8 73.8 65.2 2.2 6.0 10.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 11.8 17.1 16.6 133.1 73.2 63.4 4.0 9.5 12.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 40 60 100 11.6 13.0 15.4 140.5 73.4 63.9 3.4 8.4 11.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 5.3 9.7 14.2 133.5 72.9 62.2 2.0 3.3 7.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 40 60 100 13.4 18.8 15.9 146.3 78.5 65.0 3.9 5.8 9.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 82 18 100 12.6 17.4 16.6 125.2 69.1 61.9 4.1 9.5 17.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 37 63 100 9.0 8.4 15.2 138.5 71.5 63.8 0.6 3.6 7.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 40 60 100 12.5 15.4 15.7 148.5 76.7 65.1 2.2 6.6 12.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 82 18 100 6.7 9.9 11.8 128.0 70.0 59.0 0.9 5.7 9.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 80 20 100 9.1 15.0 16.4 125.1 70.1 62.0 4.1 6.9 14.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 83 17 100 10.1 10.8 12.5 124.8 69.2 60.5 1.5 9.1 10.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 81 19 100 7.5 11.8 19.4 120.6 67.6 59.4 2.8 5.4 10.3 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 36 64 100 15.0 17.8 16.0 140.1 75.1 65.3 3.9 6.8 15.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 81 19 100 7.8 10.2 11.7 122.5 67.9 57.7 0.4 6.5 9.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 84 16 100 7.7 14.5 13.2 124.0 70.4 61.1 1.2 6.2 13.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 81 19 100 14.1 18.7 15.5 126.5 69.7 62.5 5.6 12.3 18.1 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 40 60 100 17.0 21.2 17.7 147.9 74.3 66.2 2.5 10.2 17.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 9.2 14.7 14.6 138.7 74.6 62.2 4.2 7.3 10.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 42 58 100 14.2 16.8 16.3 144.2 73.5 65.3 2.2 9.6 13.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 34 66 100 9.5 12.2 15.5 145.4 74.6 65.1 0.9 3.4 9.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 15.2 20.1 16.9 120.3 68.6 60.6 6.8 12.1 19.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 81 19 100 7.3 11.2 12.9 129.1 69.4 61.4 1.3 5.3 11.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------