***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 31.12.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.01.2021.-24.01.2021. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 35 65 100 8.0 8.0 12.6 126.6 71.1 63.6 2.9 4.7 6.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 83 17 100 5.3 8.1 12.2 136.1 72.4 64.3 1.2 4.2 7.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 82 18 100 7.6 12.0 11.9 118.0 65.5 59.9 3.8 5.8 12.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 82 18 100 11.3 13.4 12.9 118.3 68.5 59.5 5.4 10.1 12.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 81 19 100 7.8 13.6 13.7 120.2 66.6 59.8 1.7 5.5 13.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 7.3 9.3 12.2 113.3 68.1 56.4 3.0 5.7 8.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 32 68 100 8.1 9.2 12.5 142.6 75.8 66.2 2.0 4.2 6.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 14.4 16.8 15.0 120.7 68.3 58.9 5.6 12.5 15.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 82 18 100 7.0 10.2 14.0 114.1 63.4 57.8 2.6 5.3 11.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 9.0 11.5 15.1 118.2 65.8 58.7 3.5 7.8 11.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 9.0 9.8 13.7 122.3 67.0 59.5 3.9 7.3 9.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 10.1 12.3 13.0 118.9 67.6 58.2 1.9 8.8 11.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 8.4 10.5 13.1 116.2 67.0 58.0 4.7 7.3 10.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 11.6 13.1 15.2 116.5 64.7 58.6 7.8 9.7 13.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 82 18 100 9.6 10.1 10.8 108.9 65.1 57.0 4.9 8.6 10.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 7.1 8.2 12.7 117.1 66.5 58.1 2.8 6.0 8.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 33 67 100 7.3 7.8 12.8 145.3 73.3 66.1 1.2 4.1 7.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 8.5 10.6 15.3 114.2 64.3 57.9 5.2 7.3 10.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 84 16 100 7.2 11.9 12.1 129.9 69.4 62.8 3.0 6.2 10.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 10.0 10.7 18.9 114.6 65.4 57.5 4.7 8.7 10.9 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 81 19 100 8.9 9.1 12.8 114.2 64.2 58.9 3.3 7.3 9.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 44 56 100 8.4 8.1 13.2 139.1 71.0 64.4 1.7 4.8 6.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 81 19 100 7.5 9.3 12.3 122.0 66.3 60.8 2.7 6.2 9.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 10.6 13.7 13.8 111.9 64.0 57.0 4.0 8.5 14.4 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 41 59 100 12.2 12.4 13.8 123.2 69.0 62.4 3.3 5.7 11.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 5.2 5.8 12.3 112.8 67.0 56.0 1.3 3.0 5.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 34 66 100 8.1 8.7 13.4 127.6 71.2 63.9 3.0 4.3 7.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 81 19 100 6.9 7.8 11.7 114.3 67.2 58.5 3.8 5.2 7.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 15.7 14.2 16.1 113.3 64.9 57.7 8.9 12.5 14.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 82 18 100 5.6 10.5 12.1 132.0 71.2 63.6 1.5 3.9 8.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------