***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 31.12.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 11.01.2021.-17.01.2021. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 24 76 100 4.9 7.4 18.0 175.0 80.8 72.9 0.1 1.2 1.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 32 68 100 7.3 10.5 15.4 171.5 80.3 70.5 0.3 1.4 4.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 29 71 100 6.1 8.0 16.8 160.4 79.1 69.9 0.7 1.5 4.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 39 61 100 5.7 6.7 18.5 157.3 77.4 69.2 2.6 4.0 4.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 28 72 100 7.7 10.9 18.9 169.9 80.5 72.9 1.4 3.1 7.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 36 64 100 7.1 8.6 14.7 145.8 75.0 65.8 0.5 1.7 4.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 24 76 100 8.3 10.9 15.6 175.7 81.5 71.8 0.3 1.1 5.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 32 68 100 12.7 16.6 17.8 156.0 77.3 68.6 1.6 3.5 8.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 28 72 100 5.5 6.9 18.4 162.1 79.1 72.0 0.7 2.5 4.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 30 70 100 9.2 10.9 18.2 160.8 77.2 71.2 0.5 3.8 7.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 30 70 100 8.5 11.5 17.8 162.5 78.5 71.1 0.4 2.3 5.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 35 65 100 6.6 9.0 16.3 154.5 77.3 68.0 0.5 2.0 3.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 31 69 100 6.6 10.1 17.6 164.6 80.3 70.2 0.9 2.1 5.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 81 19 100 6.1 13.1 17.3 139.5 73.3 66.2 1.3 4.3 11.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 84 16 100 2.7 8.4 15.2 135.7 72.5 64.6 0.5 1.5 6.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 36 64 100 8.5 12.1 16.7 157.8 77.8 68.9 0.8 1.6 5.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 28 72 100 5.7 7.5 14.8 173.4 80.2 70.9 0.4 1.5 4.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 30 70 100 11.2 13.3 18.3 152.2 75.6 68.8 1.8 3.5 5.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 35 65 100 8.2 12.9 15.6 165.9 79.6 69.6 0.3 1.4 3.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 34 66 100 7.8 10.5 23.9 163.3 79.8 70.7 1.4 3.6 6.0 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 29 71 100 5.8 7.0 18.1 161.3 79.3 71.6 1.1 3.0 3.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 33 67 100 5.2 6.6 14.2 159.9 76.7 68.2 0.1 1.4 3.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 36 64 100 6.2 9.6 16.6 162.9 80.6 70.6 0.3 0.9 4.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 32 68 100 8.5 9.7 17.3 145.9 75.4 67.7 1.4 3.9 7.2 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 24 76 100 6.5 8.5 21.1 177.8 82.7 74.8 0.5 1.8 4.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 30 70 100 5.7 6.9 16.0 152.7 74.9 67.3 0.6 1.2 5.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 24 76 100 4.6 9.1 19.2 175.3 81.1 73.7 0.3 1.8 2.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 44 56 100 5.4 5.9 15.7 144.5 74.1 66.5 1.1 2.3 3.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 35 65 100 14.0 16.7 19.1 149.9 76.4 68.1 2.8 6.7 9.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 31 69 100 8.0 12.2 16.0 169.5 80.4 70.5 0.3 1.2 2.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------