***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 31.12.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.01.2021.-10.01.2021. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 15 85 100 8.0 15.2 23.3 230.4 89.8 84.0 1.6 4.8 6.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 24 76 100 10.0 19.4 20.4 220.3 90.6 78.8 2.3 3.8 8.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 21 79 100 13.2 20.9 19.4 192.4 84.9 77.5 5.5 8.6 12.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 15 85 100 16.0 22.2 28.3 248.0 90.6 83.8 3.8 8.2 10.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 29 71 100 15.0 20.3 21.0 176.5 83.7 75.2 3.9 7.1 13.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 14 86 100 10.6 16.3 23.0 212.7 88.5 83.5 2.1 6.0 8.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 19 81 100 9.2 18.6 22.4 248.2 92.1 83.3 2.9 3.7 6.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 34 66 100 20.6 25.7 20.0 152.7 75.9 70.0 5.6 10.3 16.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 32 68 100 13.9 18.3 18.8 165.5 80.8 72.6 2.0 7.3 10.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 41 59 100 14.4 15.7 18.1 137.5 72.5 66.1 1.8 6.3 12.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 33 67 100 11.8 15.2 19.4 161.3 79.3 71.8 1.5 5.9 9.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 28 72 100 11.2 20.3 19.8 169.5 81.7 74.1 1.7 4.4 8.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 32 68 100 14.0 19.4 21.8 168.7 83.0 75.0 3.6 6.1 11.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 37 63 100 16.7 17.6 17.9 136.7 74.6 66.7 9.1 11.4 15.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 9 91 100 15.3 32.5 31.7 315.7 92.5 86.9 1.1 4.6 12.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 24 76 100 11.0 19.7 21.9 187.3 85.0 77.5 1.9 6.9 9.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 20 80 100 9.9 16.0 21.1 228.6 89.8 79.1 1.8 4.1 9.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 39 61 100 11.7 12.3 17.9 132.2 72.7 64.9 2.3 6.3 11.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 27 73 100 13.2 16.7 18.7 196.2 87.6 75.8 4.5 7.3 8.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 29 71 100 11.9 13.9 24.1 156.7 78.0 70.1 2.7 7.1 10.5 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 20 80 100 11.5 23.8 20.9 190.0 85.2 78.7 3.7 7.8 11.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 24 76 100 10.2 14.7 19.0 190.1 86.0 74.0 2.6 5.2 10.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 29 71 100 11.5 13.6 16.7 166.3 82.6 72.5 3.5 7.9 10.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 40 60 100 14.3 16.7 17.1 140.8 75.8 67.1 5.4 10.1 13.7 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 12 88 100 11.1 27.6 27.3 233.8 91.9 85.5 5.4 8.0 9.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 19 81 100 12.5 31.9 24.5 206.6 91.4 81.9 1.7 5.2 9.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 11 89 100 11.6 25.6 25.9 244.6 91.9 85.8 2.4 5.8 8.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 16 84 100 15.1 19.0 26.0 252.1 89.7 83.3 0.4 3.8 11.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 39 61 100 18.7 24.0 19.3 136.2 73.1 66.0 5.3 7.9 19.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 18 82 100 10.6 20.8 20.9 227.2 90.7 80.9 3.0 4.2 6.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------