***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 31.12.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.01.2021.-31.01.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 86 14 100 3.6 4.5 5.0 1.2 62.1 62.1 2.3 3.3 4.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 84 16 100 3.6 4.1 4.9 0.9 57.7 58.5 1.6 3.2 4.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 85 15 100 4.8 5.1 5.6 1.3 63.6 62.5 2.7 4.3 5.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 88 12 100 0.3 1.0 2.5 1.2 64.4 62.6 -0.7 0.0 1.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 86 14 100 4.4 4.9 4.1 1.5 66.5 65.7 3.2 4.1 4.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 37 63 100 5.0 4.8 3.2 1.5 69.6 66.8 2.9 3.9 4.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 84 16 100 3.1 3.6 4.7 0.9 57.9 58.5 1.3 2.6 4.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 84 16 100 -0.2 0.8 3.5 1.3 65.5 64.1 -1.6 -0.4 0.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 85 15 100 5.1 5.7 4.9 1.5 67.4 65.3 3.9 4.6 5.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 85 15 100 4.5 4.7 4.2 1.4 67.2 64.9 3.6 4.1 4.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 43 57 100 5.6 5.1 4.5 1.7 67.8 67.3 3.5 4.2 5.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 45 55 100 5.9 5.5 4.1 1.5 67.6 66.3 3.6 4.6 5.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 43 57 100 5.4 4.7 4.1 1.6 68.1 67.3 3.4 4.1 4.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 82 18 100 5.5 5.6 5.1 1.1 63.9 61.3 3.1 5.0 5.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 88 12 100 4.0 5.1 3.7 1.3 62.5 62.8 2.1 3.7 5.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 42 58 100 6.0 5.7 4.0 1.7 68.3 67.2 3.7 4.6 5.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 82 18 100 3.1 3.6 4.6 0.7 56.0 56.5 1.4 2.7 4.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 84 16 100 2.9 3.0 4.0 1.3 65.2 63.7 2.2 2.7 3.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 83 17 100 4.0 4.3 5.1 1.0 59.2 59.4 1.7 3.6 4.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 81 19 100 1.9 1.9 2.1 0.9 59.9 59.3 0.3 1.5 2.5 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 85 15 100 4.8 5.1 5.3 1.4 65.0 64.2 3.6 4.3 5.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 82 18 100 3.9 4.4 4.9 0.8 56.2 57.2 2.0 3.4 5.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 82 18 100 3.7 3.9 5.5 1.2 61.7 60.8 1.8 3.3 4.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 85 15 100 5.3 5.6 5.1 1.3 64.8 63.0 3.4 4.8 5.7 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 88 12 100 3.4 4.0 3.9 1.2 62.5 62.4 2.5 3.1 4.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 38 62 100 5.2 5.0 3.3 1.4 67.5 65.9 2.8 4.5 4.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 87 13 100 4.2 4.4 4.5 1.1 61.1 61.5 2.9 3.8 4.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 87 13 100 4.7 5.7 3.2 1.3 64.3 63.5 2.9 4.4 5.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 83 17 100 2.1 2.7 3.4 1.2 64.4 63.1 1.4 1.6 2.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 85 15 100 3.5 3.8 4.9 1.1 59.8 60.0 1.6 3.2 4.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------