***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 31.12.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.01.2021.-24.01.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 3.6 2.9 5.2 1.3 54.5 58.9 1.2 2.8 5.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 75 25 100 2.6 1.5 5.1 1.2 50.8 58.1 0.9 1.5 5.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 4.2 4.3 5.9 1.6 54.6 60.4 2.1 3.4 5.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 -0.5 0.2 2.9 1.5 57.4 59.0 -3.0 -1.4 1.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 4.0 5.4 4.2 1.7 60.7 61.1 2.6 3.2 5.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 40 60 100 4.9 4.6 3.7 1.9 61.0 62.2 2.7 3.8 4.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 2.4 1.3 4.9 1.0 49.7 57.0 0.6 1.3 4.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 0.0 0.6 4.2 1.9 61.2 62.7 -2.1 -0.5 0.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 5.2 6.1 5.1 1.8 59.5 61.7 2.7 4.4 6.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 4.4 5.2 4.7 1.9 60.9 62.6 2.2 3.7 5.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 4.3 5.3 4.4 1.8 61.4 62.4 3.0 3.7 5.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 5.5 5.0 4.5 1.9 61.5 62.9 3.0 4.8 5.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 38 62 100 5.3 5.0 3.8 1.7 62.1 61.9 2.9 4.4 5.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 4.3 4.6 5.7 1.9 57.2 61.8 2.6 3.3 5.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 82 18 100 3.6 3.9 3.6 1.5 56.5 59.0 0.6 2.9 4.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 5.2 5.9 4.0 1.8 61.4 61.9 3.7 4.7 5.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 75 25 100 2.6 1.6 4.9 1.0 49.6 56.8 0.7 1.6 3.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 3.2 3.2 4.8 2.0 59.3 62.9 1.4 2.8 3.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 3.3 2.8 5.5 1.4 51.8 59.4 0.9 2.3 4.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 2.0 2.3 2.9 1.7 58.3 61.3 0.4 1.1 3.4 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 4.1 5.2 5.5 1.7 57.7 61.0 2.7 3.5 6.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 75 25 100 3.3 2.2 5.2 1.1 50.9 58.1 1.3 2.2 4.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 38 62 100 4.6 2.4 6.1 1.6 54.0 60.9 1.1 2.1 4.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 4.6 4.9 5.6 1.9 57.4 61.9 2.5 4.1 6.0 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 3.1 3.7 3.8 1.3 56.5 58.5 1.1 2.5 4.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 38 62 100 4.9 4.5 3.5 1.5 62.1 61.7 3.2 4.0 4.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 4.3 3.8 4.6 1.2 54.4 58.1 1.2 3.6 5.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 80 20 100 4.1 3.8 3.4 1.7 58.5 60.1 1.4 3.0 5.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 3.3 3.9 4.2 1.9 59.4 62.7 0.3 2.7 4.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 2.5 1.7 5.1 1.3 51.4 58.4 0.6 1.5 5.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------