***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 31.12.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 11.01.2021.-17.01.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 4.2 3.2 3.7 0.3 47.6 50.8 1.9 3.3 4.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 4.0 2.6 3.8 0.2 47.8 49.9 1.0 3.0 4.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 4.8 4.1 4.3 0.5 51.2 53.1 1.9 3.8 5.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 82 18 100 0.2 0.1 1.1 0.3 52.9 51.2 -2.1 -0.4 1.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 81 19 100 4.0 4.4 2.9 0.8 57.7 56.6 2.1 3.2 5.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 4.7 5.0 2.2 0.9 59.4 58.1 2.3 4.1 5.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 3.3 1.8 3.6 0.1 45.4 49.0 0.8 2.4 4.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 0.8 1.1 2.5 0.8 59.1 57.4 -1.9 0.2 1.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 4.9 5.1 3.8 0.7 56.5 55.8 2.5 3.9 5.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 4.7 4.3 3.1 0.8 59.0 57.2 1.8 3.8 5.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 5.0 5.0 3.5 1.1 61.5 58.8 2.0 4.1 5.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 5.0 5.1 3.1 1.0 60.4 59.0 3.3 4.1 6.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 4.7 4.7 3.2 1.1 61.6 58.8 2.2 4.0 5.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 5.0 4.8 4.1 0.6 53.8 54.5 2.5 4.0 6.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 4.7 3.7 2.5 0.1 46.9 48.8 2.0 4.0 5.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 80 20 100 5.2 5.0 2.9 1.1 61.3 58.6 2.8 4.4 6.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 3.0 1.9 3.5 0.0 46.3 48.5 0.6 2.1 5.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 75 25 100 2.5 2.2 2.8 0.8 57.2 56.5 0.4 1.7 3.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 4.2 3.2 4.0 0.4 49.8 51.2 0.9 3.3 5.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 1.3 0.9 1.1 0.4 52.7 54.2 -0.1 0.5 1.9 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 4.5 4.1 4.2 0.6 55.2 54.5 1.9 3.7 5.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 52 48 0 100 1.1 2.3 3.8 0.2 48.9 50.1 0.7 2.7 5.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 3.6 2.7 4.3 0.5 51.4 52.7 1.1 2.6 5.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 5.8 5.2 4.0 0.7 55.8 55.5 2.7 4.8 6.3 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 3.7 3.2 2.6 0.2 49.9 50.7 1.7 3.2 4.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 4.5 4.4 2.3 0.8 57.8 57.9 2.2 3.9 5.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 4.4 3.3 3.2 0.2 46.6 50.0 2.3 3.6 4.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 80 20 100 4.9 4.4 2.0 0.4 53.4 52.0 2.7 4.2 6.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 0.4 2.8 2.3 0.7 56.8 56.2 -0.3 2.4 4.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 3.9 2.6 3.8 0.3 47.6 50.7 0.8 2.9 4.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------